gregladen | November 9, 2016Remember those clowns a few weeks ago? The scary clowns? I think they were trying to tell us something.
Did you know that 235,248,000 people are eligible to vote in the United States? Fewer than 120,000,000 of those people bothered to show up to vote this year, and turnout was considered high. Of those, about half, or one quarter of the voting population, elected a clown as our leader, because the clown promised to take steps to ensure a continued white majority in the United States.
That’s what happened in my world last night. What happened in your world?
Between the bouts of…
gregladen | November 8, 2016I am shocked that this does not happen more often.
First, don't stand anywhere near the damn tracks to begin with. That should help stop you from falling or being pushed onto the tracks, unless you are a friend of Frank Underwood.
Here's what you do, these two things simultaneously.
1) Get out of the way of any oncoming train, preferably by diving under the platform if there is room for you there.
2) Stay away from the third rail.
Note that the space between trains, if two trains are coming at the same time from opposite directions, may not be sufficient for you to hide. But if I had to be…
gregladen | November 8, 2016HOW TO REPORT VOTER INTIMIDATION
Dump your comments and observations here.
I'll be looking at several SOS web sites, and eventually I'll find the best on line tracker of results for the whole country. During the primaries, the Washington Post was the best. Let me know if you have any ideas.
So far heavy turnout has been noted in Minnesota, where turnout is always high, and something close to 30% of the usual number of voters had already voted early.
The biggest fear, a among those of us who have felt the pain of defeat at least as often as the thrill of victory, is this: Heavy turnout…
gregladen | November 7, 2016The 2016 Electoral Vote Prediction
I'm finished making predictions for the 2016 Presidential Election contest.
According to my model, Hillary Clinton will win with 310 electoral votes to Donald Trump's 228 electoral votes. The map is shown above.
Caveats and wrongosities:
My model puts Iowa barely in Clinton's column. Polls say Iowa is for Trump.
My model puts New Hampshire barely in Trump's column. Polls say it is for Clinton, barely.
My model puts Ohio barely in Trump's column, but the polls put it in Clinton's column.
Polls and other data are ambiguous about Florida, my model is…
gregladen | November 6, 2016Children Just Like Me: A Unique Celebration of Children Around the World is a new edition of DK's famous diversity for children book.
From the publisher:
Children Just Like Me is an amazing children's book showing everyday life through the eyes and words of children around the world.
Offering a remarkable insight into the lives of children today all around the globe, Children Just Like Me is packed with photography of children, their friends and family, home, and school vividly illustrating different cultures, from rural farms to busy cities to river boats.
With distinctive DK design and text…
gregladen | November 5, 2016Chris Cristie is a thug.*
Several of the people that Chris Cristie chose to run his administration are criminals. Going to prison criminals.
Chris Cristie is in charge of selecting the people who will run the Trump administration.
It all makes sense so far. The other shoe, the shoe we are waiting to drop, will be Cristie being indicted.
Meanwhile, questions remain as to what happened to the reporters who broke the story.
See:
___________________________________________
*I unapologetically use the word "thug" because it is always the word I've used to describe criminal gangster types…
gregladen | November 5, 2016Who will win the electoral vote on Tuesday, November 8th?
It is not what you say, but how you say it. For several days now, I've been told by some how totally wrong I am in my various analyses of the electoral map. Half the naysayers say "But but FiveThirtyEight says this, so you are wrong" and the other half say "No, no, Sam Wang at Princeton says that, so you are wrong!" But all along, we've all three been saying something very similar. The difference in how we say it is, Sam Wang says something like "I'll eat my shorts if Clinton doesn't win" and I say "I think Clinton will win, but…
gregladen | November 4, 2016You would have only one option to stop the insanity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YibDgSd02Xk
gregladen | November 4, 2016"Unwitting Trump embraces black supremacist cultist support"
This story is precious.
Here's the thing.
Michael the Blackman (that's his name), the black guy who stands or sits behind Trump at many of his rallies, tells us that Hillary is the financier of slavery. We know this because Hilary's name is Hillary Rodham Clinton. Rodham is the descendants of Rothschild, and her biggest donor is a Rothschild. So, Rothschild - Rockefeller - JP Morgan. See? The financiers of slavery. See? The supporters of Clinton are the Canaanites. The ones you've seen in the night clubs, with the black…
gregladen | November 4, 2016It appears that if Donald Trump is elected president, many world leaders, including the leaders of the Western European countries, will freeze out the US from intelligence and security decisions, because they have learned that they can't trust Trump's ability to manage or handle intelligence, and recognize that he will be Putin's puppet.
In phone calls, meetings and cables, America’s European allies have expressed alarm to one another about Donald Trump’s public statements denying Moscow’s role in cyberattacks designed to interfere with the U.S. election. They fear the Republican nominee for…
gregladen | November 4, 2016We now know that the several elements of the FBI, especially the New York Office, are manipulating this election in favor of Donald Trump, possibly in cahoots with Rudy Giuliani.
This is not FBI Director Comey releasing vague memos. Well, there is that, but it is not clear if Comey wrote that damaging memo because he wanted to hurt Clinton, or if it was because he was not fully in control of his agents and was trying to pre-empt a leak. What we now know is that several FBI agents, spread across the country but with a pernicious group in New York, are strong Trump supporters, and have been…
gregladen | November 3, 2016The most likely way for Hillary Clinton to not win the presidency may be a tie between Secretary Clinton and Donald Trump. This is because, when one looks at the data a number of ways, and makes various adjustments, Clinton wins, often just barely, most of the time, except in what appears to be the worst case scenario. That scenario is Clinton losing most of what are called "Battleground States" -- but for the most part, only those that are truly in contention, so it is quite possible -- but retaining her "firewall" states, the states she really can not possibly lose. That puts Clinton 3…
gregladen | November 2, 2016"Trump's chance of victory have doubled over the last two weeks," notes FiveThirtyEight, and this is in accord with what I've been saying.
I suggested a few days ago that while Clinton would probably win, there is a nowhere near zero chance that she won't. FiveThirtyEight came out with an analysis today very similar to mine, suggesting that Trump has abut a 3 in 10 chance of winning. Historically, races tighten near the end, I think FOR THIS REASON mainly, and that has been happening. The actual national difference between Clinton and Trump by Tuesday will probably be about 2.5 percent or…
gregladen | November 1, 2016The election is one week off. I think I've convincingly demonstrated, here, that Clinton is likely but not certain to win, that Trump has something of a chance, but not a great one, and that the swing states, therefore, matter.
There are a lot of states that are called swing states but are not. There are non-swing states that are slowly becoming swing states. For example, Georgia and Texas may well be swing states for the next presidential election. Virginia has been considered a swing state for so long that this now reliably semi-progressive/centrist vote-for-the-Dems-for-POTUS state…
gregladen | October 31, 2016A couple of weeks ago, it was impossible to find a pundit or poll maven who saw a Trump victory as a possibility. I made the audacious claim at the time that this was incorrect, and I've been taking heat from it since then. Much of this widespread misunderstanding is ironically caused by the good work of the folks at FiveThirtyEight and their imitators such as the New York Times, who have been publishing probability statements about the outcome.
If I know for near certain that Mary is going to beat Joe in an election, then I can say something like this:
Probability of winning
Mary: 97%
Joe…
gregladen | October 30, 2016The relationship between the popular vote, roughly reflected in national polls, and the Electoral College vote, is where the rubber meets the road.
When you look at states that are very solid for each candidate, neither candidate has a lock on the race, but Clinton has way more electoral votes, currently. These numbers hover around 200-something to 100-something.
Then there are the strongly leaning states, which when added to the other states, put Clinton almost exactly at the required 270 electoral votes. Maybe a little more, maybe a little less, depending on which states you think you can…
gregladen | October 30, 2016When Secretary Clinton is elected President, barring more shenanigans on the part of Republicans like James Comey, she will take an oath of office, promising to protect and defend the Constitution of the United States of America.
Then, within a few days, she'll violate that oath by appointing one or more Republicans to important positions in the Federal Government.
(As an aside, I'm wondering, what is the mechanism for paying someone like James Comey for giving a helping hand to his party and violating his constitutional oath? Offshore accounts? Do the payments come later? How does that…
gregladen | October 29, 2016No.
Many many people, well intended, smart people, keep talking about the rout, the landslide, that will happen. They may be basing this on the new trend started by FiveThirtyEight and picked up by the New York Times and others of deriving a probability statement about the race. But when you see something like "87%" for Clinton in such an estimate, that does not mean that Clinton will get 87% of the votes. It means that it is very likely that Clinton will get 270 or more electoral votes. There is, for example, a zero chance that Clinton will get a single electoral electoral from Montana,…
gregladen | October 29, 2016You all know what James Comey did. He sent a letter to Congress that will undoubtedly serve to change the vote distribution among the leasing candidates for president enough to possibly change the outcome of the United States election of the President of the United States.
Such an act is treasonous, and had a private citizen, especially a brown one or one with "Hussain" in his name, done something to affect the election to this degree, the FBI would be on that citizen like ugly on an ape. But, James Comey is the head of the FBI, he's white, male, and a Republican. Also, there is an argument…
gregladen | October 29, 2016A Trump-Kaine presidency is now on the table.
It ain't over 'till the lady in the pantsuits wins. Or looses.
Imagine Debbie Downer and Chicken Little have an offspring. It would be me. Or at least, that's how I've felt over the last few weeks as the only person in the Free World who seems to have noticed that the gap between Trump and Clinton is closing, and in fact, was never really that large to begin with. It only appeared large because a fluctuation occurred at about the same time everyone was hoping for a fluctuation, so it became more real than it should have been. The race has…