nisbetmc | August 22, 2008
Is McCain's "House" Gaffe Similar to George Bush's 1992 "Scanner" Moment?
In his first major negative ad of the campaign, Obama is defining McCain as out of touch with Americans' economic woes. Obama is seizing on McCain's gaffe yesterday when he stumbled over a question about how many homes he owns. "I think -- I'll have my staff get to you," McCain told the reporter. "It's condominiums where -- I'll have them get to you." (Either seven or eight homes, depending on reports.) (Wpost).
The Obama strategy is to define McCain as a wealthy elitist so removed from the day-to-day financial…
nisbetmc | August 20, 2008
Rewind 1992: Bush's public approval shifted as the public turned its attention from war to the economy.
As tensions with a newly aggressive Russia escalate, the return of America's Cold War enemy heavily favors McCain's election chances. Here's the reason: The issues that are most salient in voters minds are often the issues by which they are most likely to judge candidates. Political psychologists call this process "priming." The classic example of this priming effect at work was George H.W. Bush's approval ratings during the later half of his presidency (graph above, stu-dies). During the…
nisbetmc | August 20, 2008
In a recent survey, Gallup asked respondents whether they believed in God; believed in a universal spirit or higher power; or don't believe in either. Not surprisingly, "God disbelief" is highest among Americans living on the West coast with a strong proportion (29%) preferring instead belief in some general higher power, and 10% indicating an absence of belief in either God or a transcendental alternative.
Trends over time (below) show that belief in a traditional God has declined since 2000 (86% to 76%) with the shift towards a more general transcendental belief in some form of higher…
nisbetmc | August 19, 2008At the end of July, I predicted that the Edwards affair might turn out to be the dominant news story for August. It turns out I was wrong, but very close, and it was only a very strategic and effective crisis communication effort on the part of Edwards that helped stave off a media tsunami.
Still as Pew reports , despite Edwards best attempts to downplay attention, his affair for the second straight week remained the #4 most covered news story filling 4% of the newshole and trailing only the Olympics at 14% of total coverage, the general election at 22%, and the invasion of Georgia at 26% of…
nisbetmc | August 19, 2008
One image of Gore: A partisan activist and leader.
CNN reports this afternoon that Al Gore will have a major speaking slot at the Democratic convention, joining Obama on stage the last night of the convention in front of a stadium crowd of 70,000.
I am a big fan of Al Gore and often think about how history and this country would be different if Gore had run a more competent presidential campaign in 2000. Yet I can't also help but observe the strong partisan message that Gore continues to indirectly send on climate change.
Various poll analyses reveal that despite Al Gore's Nobel prize…
nisbetmc | August 19, 2008
From The Scientist's Newsblog:
In an industry known for backing Republicans, Sen. Barack Obama has emerged as a surprising pharma favorite in the US presidential election.
In April, Obama won a mock election at the annual DTC national meeting, a drug advertising conference, with a 53% to 46% victory over Sen. John McCain. Drug companies have also put the money where their mouth is: Pharma has donated three times more to the Obama campaign than to McCain's.
According to a Bloomberg News report citing data from the Center for Responsive Politics (CRP), pharma execs and employees have donated $…
nisbetmc | August 19, 2008
Will Joe Biden get the VP nod from Obama?
Obama is expected to announce his VP choice in the next 24 to 36 hours and the selection won't be unveiled by way of the usual media leak followed by a press conference. Instead, in a sign of Obama's new model of campaigning, the digitally networked candidate plans to first announce the selection by way of early morning e-mails and text messages to his millions of online supporters and then to take advantage of a full day's news cycle of coverage.
This type of "special access" granted to his digital network is a novel and easy way to reinforce the…
nisbetmc | August 18, 2008
Roughly 60% of Independents say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supported easing restrictions on off-shore drilling, according to a recent Gallup survey (figure above). But the survey also shows that there's an even stronger positive response when Americans are asked about voting for a candidate who favors establishing tax incentives to reward energy conservation; who favors raising fuel mileage standards; or who favors authorizing a $150 billion dollar investment in the development of renewable energy technology.
Yet off-shore drilling remains a winning message for…
nisbetmc | August 18, 2008
My brother Drew and cousin Jeff fishing Lady Evelyn Lake in Northern Ontario. A magical place with glassy smooth waters full of Walleye, Northern Pike, and Small Mouth Bass.
nisbetmc | August 18, 2008The Metcalfe Institute at the University of Rhode Island has announced its 2008 Grantham Prize winners for environmental reporting. The series "Choking on Growth" by The NY Times on China and its problems with environmental sustainability takes first prize. Details below the fold. For DC readers, they are holding a very interesting panel event and reception at the Newseum on Monday, Sept. 8 that is well worth attending. Details also below the fold.
Metcalf Institute for Marine and Environmental Reporting
University of Rhode Island
Graduate School of Oceanography
Narragansett, Rhode Island…
nisbetmc | August 13, 2008The reality of high gas prices and the successful advertising blitz of the McCain team has helped redefine the nature and relevance of the economy in voters' minds and in media discussion.
In making sense of the complexity of the economy, public focus has been shifted from housing, health care, and jobs to a singular fixation on energy, specifically gas prices. Given McCain's position on drilling, it's an interpretative shift that heavily favors his candidacy. Here's how The Politico described the GOP strategy with a noteworthy quote from the pollster Peter Brown:
"I think they have a real…
nisbetmc | August 12, 2008Shanto Iyengar is a professor of communication at Stanford University and director of Stanford's Political Communication Lab. He's one of the senior scholars in the field of political communication and is a leading researcher in the areas of framing and political advertising respectively.
He joined the Washington Post today for an online conversation with readers about the McCain and Obama advertising strategies. In his answers you will find many of the same themes and conclusions raised at this blog, principles that as I have detailed before, not only apply to understanding the communication…
nisbetmc | August 12, 2008
I watched Edwards' interview Friday night and it was pretty clear that he had help from crisis communication experts, delivering a narrative about a man who had come from a modest background only to succumb to hubris in his quest for power. With his southern charm and his trial lawyer poise, I thought it was a brilliant performance, though questions obviously linger about payments to his mistress and whether or not he really is the father of the child.
Of course, going head to head with the Olympics, only 3 million people actually watched the interview, but that was part of the strategy.…
nisbetmc | August 11, 2008In case you were wondering, Gore's much anticipated follow up book--where he is scheduled to detail his proposed policy actions--is due out about five months into the next administration.
nisbetmc | August 11, 2008
The Barna Group is known for its precision in tracking the preferences of religious groups, especially Evangelicals. The organization today released its latest election survey, finding that Obama is within the margin of error with McCain among self-described Evangelicals and leads across other major faith groups, though this lead has slipped somewhat over the past few months. As I've noted, McCain appears to be using strong religious imagery in his advertisements as a "Left Behind" strategy to shore up his support among Evangelicals. Obama's faith based strategy likely aims to capture a…
nisbetmc | August 11, 2008
Along with scientific journals, Americans rate public broadcasting as one of the most credible sources for information about biotechnology.
Yesterday I noted data that reveals the PBS NOVA audience to be unique in its nature. Indeed, if a company or organization wants to reach a core audience of science enthusiasts and influentials, this might be the best outlet to be featured at or to sponsor.
What makes PBS an ideal outlet is not just the nature of its audience, but also the public's trust in public broadcasting as an information source about science.
Consider the findings from a 2005…
nisbetmc | August 10, 2008
In today's fragmented media environment, how do we actually reach "mass" audiences with science-related content? Or similarly, if you are a company or organization trying to promote your science credentials to a diverse audience, what is the best outlet for doing so?
Well it appears that the Discovery Channel and its affiliated sister channels might be an optimal choice. Consider the findings from a recent analysis I ran on data collected by Pew in 2006.
Roughly half of Americans say they regularly watch either the Discovery or Learning Channels. In comparison, roughly 10% say they regularly…
nisbetmc | August 9, 2008
Straight talk express? McCain with Jerry Falwell.
Last week, I noted McCain's not-so-subtle attempt in a new Web advertisement to draw comparisons between Obama and the anti-Christ with the ad using imagery taken directly from the immensely popular Left Behind series of books.
Now Time magazine reports that the Web spot's creator has close ties to Christian Coalition guru Ralph Reed. Moreover, for the past two years, allegations that Obama is the anti-Christ have been bubbling up at far right Christian sites, fears that reached a crescendo after Obama's speech at Berlin two weeks ago. The…
nisbetmc | August 8, 2008Edwards' follies are likely to hurt Democratic chances in November and further derail media attention from issues that really matter.
Tonight on ABC Nightline, John Edwards will admit his affair but will deny the alleged love child, putting even more of a twist on the brewing media tsunami. As I predicted last week, this story promises to dominate the news agenda for August, leading up to and through the Democratic convention. Unfortunately, denying the link to the child will only drive the story and make it bigger.
If there is any silver lining, it's that Edwards chose a Friday to make the…
nisbetmc | August 8, 2008
Mark McKinnon was the genius behind Bush's 2004 media strategy. The Bush campaign successfully portrayed Bush as "a strong leader in a time of change" while redefining Kerry as "weak, waffling, and weird." For more, see the clip above, with McKinnon discussing how they turned 9/11 and metaphors about the "war on terror" to the Bush campaign's advantage.
So does this sound familiar? It's the exact strategy that McCain is applying so effectively in his recent advertising blitz. McKinnon also directed McCain's media strategy up through the primaries, and then in a rare moment of modern day…