1. framing-science
  2. California Still Within Reach for Obama

California Still Within Reach for Obama

By nisbetmc on January 29, 2008.

Collectively, the polls show a double digit lead for Clinton over Obama in California. Yet a recent Gallup survey goes beyond the standard numbers and offers estimates based on a high versus low turnout and more importantly, based on the certainty of respondents as to their vote preference. The results show that there is still time for Obama to make up the difference on Clinton among undecideds. From the Gallup survey:

Clinton leads Barack Obama by 12 points to 18 points, depending on turnout assumptions. John Edwards languishes much further behind.

About a fifth to a quarter of Democratic voters say they may still change their minds about their vote choice. Among those who claim to be certain of their choice at this time, Clinton still wins, but by a diminished margin [only 8 points in a high turnout election.]

Tags
2008 Election

More like this

Some North Carolina politics....
On the Road: Charlotte, North Carolina: An observation we've heard repeated in Obama offices across America, Crandall emphasized how beneficial the contested primary had been for building the foundation for record turnout. "We had real hints of it in the primary," Crandall said. The first-time…
Will Clinton or Sanders win the Democratic Nomination?
Both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are viable candidates to win the Democratic nomination to run for President of the United States. There are polls and pundits to which we may refer to make a guess as to who will win. Or, we could ignore all that, and let the process play out and see what…
Zogby and Moore on the Failed NH Primary Poll Predictions
Remember the Democratic New Hampshire primary? According to news organizations and many pollsters, the NH primary was supposed to be the loss that put Hillary Clinton out of contention and sealed an early nomination for Obama. Yet Clinton staged a surprise victory. At the time, Washington Post…
Why Trump Won And How To Fix That For Future Elections
Donald Trump is the president elect of the United States. Why? Trump did not win because he is widely liked. He is NOT widely liked. A very small number of Americans voted for Trump, and this number was magnified by the conservative-state-favoring electoral college, and most of those who did not…

It won't be long before we find out the actual results. It should be interesting to see what tactics and strategies both camps come out with between now and then. Thank God someone told them that mud slinging was off the menu! LOL! It's so much harder to recognize who is who with inches of mud all over them! LOL!
Dave Briggs :~)

Predicting outcomes in California based on polls taken a week before the election is very hazardous. California is notorious for having apparent big leads disappear practically overnight.