2008 Election
razib | November 13, 2009John Emerson points me to some interesting data crunching over at Open Left. The diarist, "dreaminonempty," is analyzing the past few years' election results against demographic variables. What's there not to like? Though I do think the perspective is a bit too The Emerging Democratic Majority. Yes, it does look like the Republicans, as a white Christian party, are in a world of demographic hurt. But, be cautious about projecting current trends too far. By that, I mean that the trends working against the Republicans are clear, but we aren't quite where the Republicans were during the 1970s-…
nisbetmc | October 13, 2009
Tonight, the AU School of Communication's American Forum series focuses on "Change + 1: Are young voters talking back to Obama?" A diverse panel of experts will look not only at how the Millennial generation views Obama personally but also how this age-group views the important issues facing the country today, including the economy and health-care as these issues affect them, transparency in government and the effectiveness of social-networking to govern versus social-networking to get elected.
Panelists include David Gregory, moderator, NBC's Meet the Press and AU alum; Jose Antonio…
nisbetmc | August 28, 2009
Ted Kennedy endorses Barack Obama for president in a January rally at American University.
As the nation celebrates Senator Ted Kennedy's career and accomplishments, here at American University, Kennedy's influence is tangible and widely felt. In January 2008, when Kennedy endorsed Barack Obama for president in a rally on campus, it was a major turning point in the race for the Democratic nomination.
With Obama now in the White House, young people across the country and the world increasingly look to Washington, DC as a place to pursue careers and to realize their dreams. Many of those…
nisbetmc | June 2, 2009Back during the 2008 election, John McCain came under much ridicule for admitting that he doesn't use the Internet or a Blackberry. Turns out that Bill Clinton is in the same exclusive category as McCain. From Sunday's profile at the New York Times magazine:
The man who ushered in the Internet age still does not use a computer, much less a BlackBerry, but keeps up with blogs and sites like The Huffington Post through clips printed out by aides.
nisbetmc | May 13, 2009There are a lot of Twitter dismissives among science bloggers, but the mobile technology has promise, journalists and others just have to understand how to structure its use successfully.
One such constructive application was pioneered here at American University by journalism professor David Johnson and used by students and collaborators in last year's November election. Read or tweet about Twitter Vote Report, an application that is cleaning up among this year's journalism and technology awards.
nisbetmc | May 10, 2009
Everyone from Maureen Dowd to Allessandra Stanley have speculated as to why Elizabeth Edwards would endure the pain to go public with how she has dealt with her husband John's infidelity.
But there is one key motivation yet to be discussed: Elizabeth's book and publicity tour may in fact be a brilliant communication strategy to repair John's image and to enable his political future.
Last August, I remarked on just how perfectly choreographed Edwards' appearance on Nightline had been, suggesting that it was clear that the skilled trial attorney had solicited direction from crisis…
nisbetmc | December 17, 2008Obama gets communication and that's why he was able to make a historic run to the White House. And it's much more than an understanding of how to use technology to deliver a message or to augment traditional grassroots organizing efforts.
More importantly, Obama understands the importance of focusing on commonly shared goals and values, in the process reaching out to unconventional allies to frame issues in a way that connect to the worldviews of hard to reach audiences. The latest example is the choice of Rick Warren to deliver the invocation at Obama's inauguration. (Let's also hope, as I…
nisbetmc | November 14, 2008What else is new in the Obama presidency? Presidents have given weekly radio addresses for decades, but Obama plans to take this vehicle for direct communication digital, offering motivated viewers (and bloggers) weekly YouTube address. See the report at the Huffington Post.
nisbetmc | November 5, 2008
From the Chronicle of Higher Education:
The 2008 presidential election has broken so many political barriers that historians may overlook one unusual fact: When Barack Obama takes the oath of office next January alongside his running mate, Joe Biden, it will be the first time in history that the president, vice president, and both of their spouses have worked in higher education.
Taken together, the Obamas and the Bidens have amassed decades of experience at colleges and universities. Mr. Obama taught constitutional law at the University of Chicago Law School from 1992 until 2004, when he…
nisbetmc | November 4, 2008
With polls looking good for an Obama victory, here's a clip from an interview I did with Big Think back in July, discussing why Obama has been such a successful communicator.
nisbetmc | November 3, 2008
Polls including cell-phones are highlighted in orange.
Wondering about the variation across survey organizations in estimating Obama's national lead? As I have been discussing in my research methods course here at AU, much of the variation is likely accounted for by differences in likely voter models but also in sampling differences that include either cell phones or landline phones only.
As Wired reports, over at the blog 538.com, Nate Silver shows that surveys that include cell phones average a 10pt lead for Obama, reflecting stronger support among younger voters and minorities. Among…
nisbetmc | October 31, 2008
Obama took over the airwaves Wednesday night, hitting most of the important audience groups. According to Nielsen (above), Obama's 30 minute 8pm infomercial which aired on CBS, FOX, NBC, Univision, BET, MSNBC, and TV One drew a combined 33.5 million viewers. His later taped appearance on The Daily Show registered another 3.6 million hard to reach young viewers, a record audience for the program.
Obama even tied into the 11pm local news and cable news broadcast, with many stations and networks cutting live to his first joint appearance with Bill Clinton. CNN video below.
McCain attempts to…
nisbetmc | October 22, 2008How strong is the partisan divide on perceptions of global warming? The tendency for Republicans to doubt the reality of climate change means that they are even distrustful of John McCain's advocacy for action on the problem.
From a news release for a survey just released by Anthony Leiserowitz of Yale University and Edward Maibach of George Mason University:
In the race to earn undecided voters' trust on the issue of global warming, the two candidates are in a dead heat. Fifty percent of undecided voters trust John McCain as a source of information about global warming and 51 percent trust…
nisbetmc | October 16, 2008
The chatter among pundits and journalists this post-debate morning has focused in part on John McCain's body language and split-screen demeanor. There was a clear aggressiveness and emotion to McCain's performance last night, much of it signaled not just when he was speaking, but also in split-screen reactions to Barack Obama's "eloquence."
Past research on split-screen effects in the 2004 election shows that viewer partisanship is likely to guide reactions to candidate demeanor, with Republicans seeing McCain's behavior as that of a strong leader justly outraged at Obama's attacks and…
nisbetmc | October 10, 2008How difficult has it been for economists to communicate their expertise to policy makers during this financial crisis? The Chronicle of Higher Education has this report:
During the days after the White House announced its rescue proposal, economists of diverse stripes drafted plans, petitions, and working papers. And a few scholars were summoned to the U.S. Capitol to advise lawmakers directly.
But now that the dust is beginning to settle in Washington, many academic economists have the gnawing feeling that during moments of crisis, they don't have much ability to sway public policy.
nisbetmc | October 8, 2008From the University of Pennsylvania's FactCheck.org, (listen to the ad and read the full analysis):
An Obama-Biden radio ad hammers McCain for being opposed to stem cell research. Not true. Meanwhile two spots from the McCain-Palin campaign, together with the Republican National Committee, describe McCain's support for the research; they're largely accurate.
By saying that "John McCain has stood in the way - he's opposed stem cell research," the Obama ad seriously misstates the view that McCain has held on this issue since 2001, when he began backing embryonic stem cell research, a position…
nisbetmc | October 8, 2008
Nielsen has released an interesting breakdown and comparison of the audiences for the first presidential debate and the VP debate.
According to Nielsen, sixty-one percent of all U.S. households watched at least one of the two 2008 election debates aired so far. Of all households, 39% watched neither debate, while 30.3% tuned in to both, 11.2% of all homes tuned in to the presidential debate only, and 19.5% tuned in to just the V.P. debate.
Watching the debates, I've expected that the largest audience was tuning in for the first 30 minutes of the 90 minute debates, but according to Nielsen (…
nisbetmc | October 6, 2008Remember the Democratic New Hampshire primary? According to news organizations and many pollsters, the NH primary was supposed to be the loss that put Hillary Clinton out of contention and sealed an early nomination for Obama. Yet Clinton staged a surprise victory.
At the time, Washington Post media reporter Howard Kurtz pulled no punches in criticizing the horse race coverage that defined the primary races: "The series of blown calls amount to the shakiest campaign performance yet by a profession seemingly addicted to snap judgments and crystal-ball pronouncements. Not since the networks…
nisbetmc | October 5, 2008
Just how bad has the information tide turned against McCain on the economy? The conservative Economist magazine, in survey results published this week, finds that economists overwhelmingly name Obama as more qualified to handle the economy.
More Democrats than Republican economists replied to the survey, but even among Republicans, Mr Obama has the edge: 46% versus 23% say Obama has the better grasp of the subject. In terms of who is more likely to surround himself with qualified experts, 81% of all respondents say Obama; 71% among respondents who say they are unaffiliated with a party.
nisbetmc | October 5, 2008How critical is framing to effectively communicating about complex policy problems, especially under conditions of uncertainty? Just take a look at the debate over the economic crisis.
As I noted last week, the term "bailout" has locked in a specific framing of the issue that inflames populist anger and caters to House Republicans' efforts to exploit the situation for political gain. The "bailout" triggers thoughts of saving irresponsible wealthy bankers who got greedy, whereas economists view the problem more along the lines of jump starting an economy that is collectively a stuttering…