revere | January 23, 2008In 2006 there were 115 confirmed cases (WHO case count) of H5N1 in humans with 79 deaths. In 2007 the figures are 86 cases and 59 deaths. Some have taken this as evidence H5N1 is less of a problem (latest data here). That's not how I read it, however. Seasonal flu numbers bounce around from year to year, too, and if this year is better than last year it isn't because flu is disappearing. Still, let's take a look at the numbers a little more closely and see where the differences are. Here's the WHO Table:
21 January 2008
Country
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Total
cases
deaths…
revere | January 22, 2008Recently we posted on the EPA highly unusual (as in unprecedented) decision to reject Californian's new greenhouse gas regulations. Why did they do it? Good question and one the California Congressional delegation wanted an answer to. To whom did EPA talk about the regulations? Who advised them to reject it? Sorry. Mum's the word. Actually its words. Executive privilege:
Invoking executive privilege, the Environmental Protection Agency on Friday refused to provide lawmakers with a full explanation of why it rejected California's greenhouse gas regulations.
The EPA informed Sen. Barbara Boxer…
revere | January 21, 2008A report late last night by Helen Branswell alerted me to a tabulation from a new tracking system WHO is putting into place to answer demands from a number of member states in the developing world that there be more transparency in how isolates of avian influenza (bird flu) submitted to WHO are used and by whom. About a third of confirmed cases have been registered in Indonesia, although that country has provided less than a quarter of the isolates, a reflection of the refusal by the country's health minister, Dr. Siti Fadilah Supari, to provide any more specimens until matters of vaccine…
revere | January 21, 2008We now know that Pakistan sold nuclear secrets to Libya and North Korea and who knows who else. The assumption was that the nuclear secrets were Pakistan's. AQ Khan, head of the Pakistani nuclear program gets the blame (or the credit; he is considered a national hero in Pakistan). Nuclear secrets sold to the highest bidder by a corrupt government official. Good thing US officials don't do that. Or do they?
The FBI has been accused of covering up a key case file detailing evidence against corrupt government officials and their dealings with a network stealing nuclear secrets.
The assertion…
revere | January 21, 2008We've complained enough about the unwise words of M. Vallat, Director General of the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE; see here and here). Nor was it the first time (May 2007).
What I didn't say was that whenever I hear an official like M. Vallat assure us that everything is stable, a chill runs down my spine. Invariably shortly afterward things start to come apart. These folks have an uncanny sense of timing. So now we have bird flu in Iran again for the first time since 2006 and the virus is marching relentlessly across India (things have gotten messy with culling teams attacked…
revere | January 20, 2008The second leading cause of death in the 5 to 18 year old age group in the US is homicide. These are school aged children and the first thing that comes to mind are the big names like Columbine and Virginia Tech. But we know there are other school-related homicides that kill only one or two. Moreover there seem to be more of them than we remember from years past. But are there?
CDC, in conjunction with the US Department of Education and the US Department of Justice undertook to find out for the period July 1999 to June 2006. It turns out not to be an easy task since there is no central…
revere | January 20, 2008The historical Jesus -- if there was a person of that name and generally received description -- was apparently a rich white guy. That's according to an authority, the Rev. Creflo Dollar of the World Changers Church International in College Park, Ga. He probably feels a kinship to Jesus, being a rich whiteblack guy himself. [Correction: Big mistake on my part. Creflo is a black scoundrel, not a white one. Just goes to show you the power of stereotypes! Thanks to commenter hardindr for pointing this out. ] Creflo drives a Rolls Royce and has big houses in Georgia and New York. He's also a…
revere | January 19, 2008I saw a small news article about what seems to me a fairly silly piece in a bulletin called Communicable Diseases Intelligence:
Never mind the Tamiflu, authorities should be stockpiling thermometers in preparation for an influenza pandemic, public health specialists say.
The much-rehearsed public health measures to contain an outbreak of influenza may fail because they falsely assume that most households have thermometers to allow self monitoring of suspected fever, they write in the bulletin Communicable Diseases Intelligence.
For containment to be effective, health workers are expected to…
revere | January 18, 2008Another story about a "new" screening test, this one for prostate cancer, the most common cancer in the US. This one looks for a particular combination of variations in five genes. If a man has all five and a family history of prostate cancer then his risk of is increased by a factor of nine. The researchers who have devised the test have also patented it and plan to sell it for $300 bucks a pop. I, for one, am not buying it (literally or figuratively). First some of the details as given by a press report:
Almost half of prostate cancer patients carry five genetic variations and a family…
revere | January 18, 2008In 2005 the world's bird flu doctors got together and pooled their meager knowledge about the epidemiology and clinical features of this zoonotic disase that has so far infected 350 people and killed 217 of them (latest "official" figures via WHO). In March of 2007 they got together again in Turkey and the New England Journal of Medicine (January 17, 2008 issue) has just published a joint report summarizing their discussion. Helen Branswell sets the stage:
The article, a review of data compiled on human cases to date, answers some questions about how the virus affects people. But it also…
revere | January 17, 2008I think it's safe to say most Americans couldn't give a rat's ass about funding for physics research in the US. So even fewer will cry about a story in New Scientist that the American physics research effort is starting to buckle under the weight of budget cuts:
The reality of the US budget cuts to particle physics has hit home. The Stanford Linear Accelerator Center (SLAC) in California, US, has just announced a trio of painful consequences: the end of work on the International Linear Collider, the imminent closure of its BaBar antimatter experiment, and the layoff of 125 workers.
SLAC and…
revere | January 17, 2008When we complained the other day about World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) Director General Bernard Vallat's ill-considered remarks about how stable H5N1 was and that earlier fears were "overblown" we were not alone. Mike Osterholm at CIDRAP issued a similar remonstrance and the latter was publicized by the folks at Avian Flu Trackers on a press release that was picked up by a number of papers. Now DG Vallat is busy trying to extricate his foot from his mouth (or wherever he lodged it):
At an informal meeting with the press on 10/1/08 , the Director General of the OIE, Dr Bernard…
revere | January 16, 2008Another one of those stories about what is truly, a technological marvel: shrinking a gas chromatograph/mass spectrometer down to the size of an iPod, with the target size being that of a matchbox. Designed by MIT engineers, the device which can analyze the air for hazardous gases (and could be adapted for other media like water) is touted as a possible distributed sensor for water supplies to protect us against chemical attacks or in subway systems to warn of terrorist attacks. I think this is bullshit and I'll explain why after a description of this ingenious device:
Their detector uses gas…
revere | January 16, 2008The host range of H5N1 is impressive: birds, of course; but also many mammals, including dogs, cats, stone martens, ferrets, mice, rats, humans. There are undoubtedly others. Cats are probably infected when they eat infected birds. Dogs? Not clear. Humans? Birds, other people on rare occasions. What else? In fact we know incredibly little about how various hosts are infected. Do cats spread it from cat to cat and dogs, dog to dog? How about cats spreading it to dogs and vice versa? Of course dogs to humans or cats to humans is an important topic. So it's good to see some studies looking at…
revere | January 15, 2008Today is Martin Luther King's birthday. It is a holiday in the US but has a universal meaning. Because I am powerfully moved by music I could only commemorate it with music. There are three songs in the two videos that follow. The first is the great Billie Holiday singing Strange Fruit. The "strange fruit" were the bodies of black men who had been lynched and were swinging from southern (and some northern) trees. It was not so long ago. I was alive then. A reminder. Then the page turns. A song of energy and hope and purpose. It keeps me going through the times I feel so very tired and wonder…
revere | January 15, 2008Most of us read the Federal Government pandemic flu plan as having two components: the first is procurement of vaccines and antivirals for stockpiles and sale to states at a discount; the second is to leave everything to the locals. The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) sees it differently and they may well be right. They see the federal pandemic flu plan as containing a covert but not subtle command and control law enforcement core. Whatever you think of the ACLU (and I confess to be ambivalent because they caved in to McCarthyite enemies of civil liberties in the 1950s; they have since…
revere | January 14, 2008I'm a frustrated inventor. For years I've tried to market a set of wonderful ideas but can't seem to interest the Big Boys in Corporate America. Threatened, I guess. Here are a few of my inventions:
Popply seed toothpaste
The toilet bowl cleaner that turns the water yellow.
A fifteen digit electronic caculator that approximates your answer to slide rule accuracy.
A leather tanning process that makes leather look like Naugahyde.
Clear, transparent venetian blinds.
A clear glass bathroom door so you can always see if there is someone in there before you try to go in.
These are obviously…
revere | January 14, 2008The American Journal Constitution has a story today wondering if the notorious TB lawyer (see our posts here) that caused an international ruckus because he flew against medical advice (the evidence is a bit obscure on this point) may have been part of a CDC ploy to get increased funding for its TB program. I don't know the answer to that, but the fact it should even be raised and taken seriously in some serious quarters speaks volumes about CDC, its management and an air of desperation there:
Months before the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention made Atlanta lawyer Andrew Speaker the…
revere | January 13, 2008I'm not sure who Professor David Alexander, the Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen, Scotland is (he's identified as an adviser to NAOA and the UK Government on pandemic flu) but I think he's got it right:
The public would put themselves at risk because they would not trust politicians to tell the truth if the country was hit by a major outbreak of bird flu, a world expert on disaster management has claimed.
Professor David Alexander, of the Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen, has been appointed as an adviser to both Nato and the UK Government on the issue of pandemic flu.
Alexander says…
revere | January 13, 2008The number of Americans who never go to a church, synogogue or mosque is at a record level -- 22%, according to a survey done for the Southern Baptist Convention. The attitude toward religion also isn't very friendly among these so-called "unchurched": 72% say the church is "full of hypocrites" and 44% agree with the statement, "Christians get on my nerves." The survey was done last spring and summer. I doubt it looks much better (for the Baptist Convention, that is), today.
22% would be a much higher number for non-believers than any other survey and indeed, these aren't all non-believers.…