Seems that there's some excitement about a new paper A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures Over the Last 1000 Years Reliable? to be published in Annals of Applied Statistics. Their reconstruction appears to be closest match to a hockey stick shape yet seen:
Also:
Using our model, we calculate that there is a 36% posterior probability that 1998 was the warmest year over the past thousand. If we consider rolling decades, 1997-2006 is the warmest on record; our model gives an 80% chance that it was the warmest in the past thousand years.
Discuss.
Update: Deep Climate on M&W is worth a read.
[Update 2: Eduardo Zorita.
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Walsh once again shows that he does not have any understanding of the English language.
Walsh said:
Ian Forrester said:
Bill Walsh:
I don't have to look very far:
97% of active climate scientists are "AGW devotees" and presumably you're not. That means you think you know more about the AGW aspect of climate science than 97% of climate scientists.
umm. Proxies are used to infer temperature, not predict it. Models make the predictions. And it's easier by far to predict long-term (centuries) trends than trends even over several decades.
This is bats__t insane. I think The Annals of Applied Statistics does not do a good job editing or peer reviewing.
> I, on the other hand, am not wedded to any one idea and am able to see that there are merits to both sides of the discussion.
And then ignore them.
This is not seeing the merits.
E.g. in your insistence that since people are complaining about this paper that there MUST be a pony in there somewhere.
What you have demonstrated here, and in all your other posts is a holier-than-thou god complex.
You know, from the POV of a nutcase, all those sane people are a hell of a long way off.
Aren't they, Bill...
Just had to see if it was ever addressed. Of course, nothing was...
Ian @496,
You seem confused Ian, and ironically, you seem to be the one with language issues. Again, please back up your pathetic assertion that I in some way made libelous claims about scientists. Or even disparaging ones. You can't, so you deflect. And you do a shitty job of it. But that is your internet MO so I am not surprised.
Chris @497,
Nothing about that comment directly or implicitly states that I know more than anyone. I simply found it interesting how much this subject got you folks so twisted up. Amusing. Nothing more. Care to try again Chris? If that is the best you can do, fail.
Wow @ 499,
I am the one with the "holier than thou god complex?" Now that is funny coming from you of all the people I see who post here. Given that I have yet to see you do anything more than spout your opinions as fact regardless of the topic, i would suggest a quick look in the mirror if you are looking for people with a "god" complex.
You guys do make me laugh I will say that. And it isn't because you are trying to be humorous. That would actually take a sense of humor.
I'll check back again later to see if Ian has scraped together a better answer to my request that he put up, or shut up. I suspect he will do neither.
More empty guff from Bill, why am I [not surprised](http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2010/08/a_new_hockey_stick_mcshane_and…).
Bill Walsh:
No Bill. You fail. Your pejorative comment:
"AGW devotees"
does imply you think you know more about the AGW aspect of climate science than "AGW devotees" and I pointed out the fact that "AGW devotees" includes 97% of active climate scientists.
Meanwhile, as [others have pointed out](http://deepclimate.org/2010/08/19/mcshane-and-wyner-2010/#comment-5455) there are two [new comments on M&W](http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~tingley/Blakeley_Discussion_Tingley_…) [PDF] accepted for publication.
If the comments hold up, they suggest that the key claims made by M&W are totally indefensible. And some of the grounds for asserting indefensibility are precisely those pointed out much earlier here. Ignoring for a moment the trenchant criticism that these guys seem to be botching paleoclimatology and relying on novel but unvalidated methods, there's this:
> Assessing the skill of methods that do not work well (such as Lasso) and concluding that no method can therefore work well, is logically flawed.
Well, duh! ;-) That's what was being said here almost immediately, despite others arguing that it was not kosher to criticise before publication.
If anything, the pre-publication critique may do some real good if M&W decide to withdraw their paper before it is published - one less badly flawed peer-reviewed paper for denialists and propagandists to exploit with their "peer-review means correct if it supports my position, but groupthink if it opposes it" double standard.
Paging Judith Curry - does the paper still "look the real deal" - and if not what does it say about your ability to discriminate between "the real deal" and crap?
Paging Anthony Watts - does the paper still "squarely hit the target"?
etc...
> I am the one with the "holier than thou god complex"
Well I'm glad you now admit it. You can now either heal yourself or at least avoid subjects where your complex will become a problem.
> Given that I have yet to see you do anything more than spout your opinions as fact
Which opinions have I made as fact?
And, given that this thread is about the opinions of people about this paper, you cannot merely point to something I've given as *opinion* without also showing that I've put it as FACT.
But you can't do that, can you bill.
You know, with all your complaints and all this effort you're making to belittle me or cast doubt on my veracity surely means there's *something* to what I'm saying...
[Annals of Applied Statistics](http://www.imstat.org/aoas/next_issue.html) will be publishing the paper in the context of a discussion and commentary including a supportive discussion from M&M and an editorial outlining the process of the discussion. Statistics is on a list of "things I need to understand better". That being said, Berliner points out that the authors assume a linear relationship between proxy observations and climate variables, suggesting the relationship is not tenable.
For me, it is important that statisticians be involved in data analysis and model development discussions, but there is also a responsibility to understand the system being analysed.
[Groan...]
As Drongo has gone quiet on the Open Thread 58, I thought that I'd venture into the Bog to see if he'd retreated to beating his chest on the thread that Marohasy has erected in his honour. No sign of him, but it seems that Marohasy is back in business and giving Codling a run for her money.
One thread that had me shaking my head in disbelief is [divorce lawyer cohenite and his mate David Stockwell claiming that it's the sun, stupid](http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2011/01/david-stockwell-and-anthony-co…), and in doing so using liberal reference to McShane and Wyner:
Paul Nurse would weep.