catdynamics | May 1, 2009Effect measure has another good swine flu entry
one thing I haven't seen laid out explicitly is why the school closures etc?
I mean, this is a new variant flu and we are all going to get it.
Statistically that means a few percent of us will have mystery immunity and maybe 1/3-2/3 of the population will get it in the first full blown wave.
Well, there are three reasons to take proactive precautions against contagion, despite the inevitable:
one is that the current wave might fizzle, possibly just because the weather is getting warmer in the northern hemisphere; that still leaves the…
catdynamics | April 30, 2009so, three swine flu cases in Oxnard, and half-dozen in a kids' camp near San Lois Obispo, it will be here by the weekend
but it is ok, according ot the LA Times it is going to be mild...
so, what do the numbers tell us so far
well, it would be nice to know wtf is going on in Mexico...
but, the US has 109 confirmed cases and it sounds like there are several hundred more suspected and to be confirmed soon - we're still on the apparent linear slow rise on the exponential, and of course we have no info on when it will saturate and flatten - rise and inflection will be interesting
the flu is…
catdynamics | April 30, 2009Daily Show does the LHC
and the path integrals of our lives
Daily Show does the LHC!
Not bad, Ellis is pretty good. Link when they have it.
Do you know what at Kelvin is?
The Daily Show With Jon Stewart
M - Th 11p / 10c
Large Hadron Collider
thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes
Economic Crisis
First 100 Days
damn, that was fast...
Life Path Integrals - at Information Processing
- reminds me of a Ted Chiang short story, or Anathem...
However, do note that the academic infinite postdoc path is closer to the sex&drugs&rocknroll then it is to corporate-kiss-ass…
catdynamics | April 29, 2009yet more flu
university politics
and whatever else I tripped over on the net
Revere beats a dead horse wot needs beatin'
Revere: not just a statistic
LOLpigs
Tara: swine 'flu deja vu
Digital Biologist: what goes around comes around
very cool viral sequence alignments and family trees
Digital Biologist: this is how you do it
Wired: flu genomics
Flu Redux: from Making Light
University As We Know It: End Thereof
Incoherent Ponderer dismantles the preceding
FSP takes on the University As We Know It
catdynamics | April 29, 2009it is not just about lots of people dying
see medical doctors have a different perspective on severity
this was brought home to me by a relative who came off watch and described the shape of someone who had been injured earlier that day, described as "moderate" in the news
You: healthy
MD: healthy
You: not feeling too good
MD: you're healthy
You: ugh. tylenol, water, let me sleep
MD: healthy
You: feels like a bus hit me, burning up, achy, can't move, better stay home
MD: minor illness
You: half-conscious, can't walk, high fever, excruciating pain, vomiting, diarrhea
MD:…
catdynamics | April 29, 2009World Health Organization raised the influenza pandemic alert to level 5.
Phase 5 Pandemic (Click to embiggen)
Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.
WHO director's statement
" Based on assessment of all available information, and following several expert…
catdynamics | April 29, 2009so what would a mild swine flu pandemic cost?
we get out the envelope...
best case is about 1% hit to GDP this year
so far on the swine 'flu we know:
it is a new type A influenze variant
probably essentially no one has immunity to it
it seems to spread rapidly and easily and be past where it can be contained
it might fizzle due to summer coming, or spread global in the next 2-6 weeks
it might come back next winter, possibly more virulent, or not
the fatality ratio, so far, does not seem any worse than "regular 'flu" - under 1%, and probably consistent with few percent of the seriously sick…
catdynamics | April 28, 2009lanow blog reporting two deaths over the weekend from pneumonia or 'flu like illness.
possibly from swine flu
or not.
33 yr male from Long Beach died monday - pneumonia over pre-existing lymphoma
45 yr male from La Mirada - died monda from pneumonia - County refused death certificate
Coroner's office is investigating
lifted from comment on Effect Measure
catdynamics | April 28, 2009Chemistry songs.
Well, there is the classic:
Lehrer's Song of the Elements
but it turns out there is a pageful of them
actually, "Sound of Stirring" is kinda catchy.
"Hello test tube my old friend,
I've come to work with you again
Upon a straight alkane I was keeping
I tried to turn it into a diene
But the two reactants
That I used were oh so wrong
Spent all day long
With just the sound... of stirring"
youtube people!
Get it out there.
catdynamics | April 28, 2009The Quantum Control of Light and Matter program is underway here at KITP and I'm sitting in on some of the talks.
with Keto-Eno-Tautomerie-Blues!
Auf Deutsch...
All I can say is, bloomin' heck, some interesting stuff that can be done now.
Not just moving atoms and entanglng qbits, but robust control of nuclear spin ensembles
I missed the Quantum Control by Laser Pulses by Manz and Barth (video, podcast, slides)
but I made it to
Glaser's "NMR Control Overview" (video, podcast)
it is a very long talk, but worth it for the end, where they show robust control of an ensemble of nuclear spins…
catdynamics | April 28, 2009Most distant gamma ray burst yet found by Swift.
GRB 090423 at z=8.2
Official NASA Press Release
GRB 090423 click to embiggen
catdynamics | April 28, 2009yes, more swine flu link
save the frog day
reprap
and other random bits
Ok, first the Swine Flu (there's some actual astro and other stuff below):
Revere: Pandemics - seen one...
Revere Channels Jon for the best news summaries
Revere: CFR, virulence and all that
Revere: afternoon briefing
Revere: what did you expect?
Aetiology: 'flu update
Chandar blog: 4-way Cluster Collision
Chandra: Talk To The Hand
100th Carnival of Space - I keep forgetting those...
First Annual Save The Frogs Day!
er, we saved one from the pool yesterday... does that offset the two frogs and three tadpoles the kids…
catdynamics | April 27, 2009summary of the issues and stakes in the current 'flu outbreak from a more theoretical physics perspective...
Three years ago I did a Back of the Envelope Assessment for Bird 'flu:
"...So, why worry?
As always, because of the low probability, high risk scenario.
Taken at face value, there is a ~ 1/100 risk of a pandemic killing ~ 1 billion people worldwide and tens of millions in the US; this is no higher than the "mean risk" of a pandemic of ~ 1/1000 per year, even though I take the prior that we know of a probable impending pandemic with H5N1. So I'd call it a conservative estimate, with…
catdynamics | April 27, 2009The Kavli Institute has a new piece of kinetic art which has captured the attention of many of the locals...
Jean-Pierre, Kavli Institute artist in residence a cofounder of the algorists, recently put up a lovely piece at the bottom of the staircase at my end of the Institute.
It makes geometric patterns in sand, ever changing.
Some start off simple
but they move.
It is endlessly fascinating, the kids love it (sometimes a bit too much, but the patterns regenerate) and it has kept a number of physicists distracted while they try to figure out how he does it.
(I have a theory, based on…
catdynamics | April 26, 2009swine 'flu update
Iceland's elections and other randomness
Yeah, lots of swine flu links, and most of you by now know about Revere.
But, linking performs an intrinsic function in and of itself.
Wiki entry on H1N1 '09 'flu outbreak
Swine flu's ticket to ride
Swine flu: what you don't know may hurt us all
Swine Flu: thoughts for the day - Revere
Revere is on this - read the comments to his posts also
Tara is back and on it
Corpus Callosum explains what pandemic level numbers mean
Neuroenhancers: provocative post on better living through chemistry
- but will it make us blog bette?
Chad on…
catdynamics | April 25, 2009Revere links to a
curious Bloomberg News story
"...The first case was seen in Mexico on April 13. The outbreak coincided with the President Barack Obama's trip to Mexico City on April 16. Obama was received at Mexico's anthropology museum in Mexico City by Felipe Solis, a distinguished archeologist who died the following day from symptoms similar to flu, Reforma newspaper reported. The newspaper didn't confirm if Solis had swine flu or not. "
I presume the Secret Service takes sharp notice if someone who meets the President dies the next die from a mystery illness.
I also presume an autopsy…
catdynamics | April 24, 2009in honour of Geithner's end of the week press conference
Crimson Permanent Assurance:
The song is at the end of part 2...
catdynamics | April 24, 2009swine 'flu epidemic
passing ship
creation of oil
and other defining moments
all right, serious shit link edition:
Effect Measure is all over the swine 'flu outbreak in SoCal and Mexico
Revere is not prone to panic:
----
PPS: Saturday Night Weird Story Edition
- Read it and ponder.
----
Unusual 'flu cases in SoCal...
The CDC heads-up advisory the CDC has swine 'flu on its front page now, but has gone to normal "steady on chaps" mode
Swine 'flu store evolving
Oh crap! Many cases in Mexico City with multiple fatalities
Swine 'flu update
Another update from Revere
End of the day wrap up…