New Jersey Primary

And, how did my model do? There was a lot of talk about California, and a lot of back and forth, but in the end I stuck with my original model to predict the outcome of that race. See the table above for the results, but the bottom line is that I predicted that Clinton would get 57 percent of the votes and Sanders 43 percent. It turns out that Clinton got 57 percent and Sanders got 43 percent. Excuse me for a moment while I bask in the bright light of being-right-ness. Thank you. Now, on to the details. First, a quick, note on the numbers and methods. All my percents (for prediction and…

As you know, I’ve been running a model to predict the outcomes of upcoming Democratic Primary contests. The model has change over time, as described below, but has always been pretty accurate. Here, I present the final, last, ultimate version of the model, covering the final contests coming up in June. Why predict primaries and caucuses? Predicting primaries and caucuses is annoying to some people. Why not just let people vote? Polls predict primaries and caucuses, and people get annoyed at polls. But there are good reasons to make these predictions. Campaign managers might want to have…