But Obama supporters should keep something in mind that Jon Swift wrote:
The biggest loser of all was Hillary Clinton. If she can't win in Iowa, where can she win? In every contested race since 1972 (Bill Clinton ran unopposed in 1996), the winner of the Iowa caucuses for the Democrats has gone on to be elected President, except for 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000 and 2004 when the winner did not go on to be elected President. Iowans have an uncanny ability to predict which Democrat can win in the general election, which means Hillary's campaign may be doomed.
Snark aside, I wonder if the high young voter turnout had to do with the caucuses being held during colleges' winter break. It will be interesting to see if this holds up. If it does, I'll back Obama because a higher-than-usual turnout of young voters will crush congressional (House, not Senate) and state legislative Republicans.
We'll see...
- Log in to post comments
More like this
What is the relationship between what happens in these two early primary races and what actually happens later on in the election cycle?
It turns out that this is a difficult question to answer. One very simple way of asking the question is this: Does the winner of a given contest also become…
Donald Trump is the president elect of the United States. Why?
Trump did not win because he is widely liked. He is NOT widely liked.
A very small number of Americans voted for Trump, and this number was magnified by the conservative-state-favoring electoral college, and most of those who did not…
Just to add some more to yesterday's numbers and links on the Iowa caucuses, which just shows that if you get all your news from the MSM, especially the TV, you are not just woefully uninformed, but criminally misinformed. Take your time this weekend to read up on these:
Sara Robinson: 2008: A…
As the dust settles in New Hampshire, people are starting to talk about the winners and losers, and what it all means in the grand scheme of the election. Some are looking for excuses reasons why Obama didn't actually pull off a win when every poll conducted in the known universe last week said he…
Part of that effect from college students deppends on where they are registered to vote. And New Hampshire may well prove to have an opposite effect, since I suspect that a much higher percentage of college students in NH are non-residents of the state compared to Iowa.
The only two Democrats elected to the presidency since 1972 are Jimmy Carter (which Swift lists the 1976 election as an exception) and Bill Clinton. This uncanny ability of the Iowa caucus to predict a Democratic president is based on one election! I would hardly call that uncanny. But, I would call it pretty meaningless.
Billy, I think what you said was the point of Jon Swift's comments. He just said it better than you because he's funny as hell.
Billy Taylor's right. Kristen, if that was point of Jon Swift's post, why didn't he just say so? Why all the round-about wordiness? We need more plain-spoken people who speak plainly and put things in simple terms that anyone can understand. The world is too complex as it is, and I think we should simplify it. I certainly would never write anything that is the opposite of my literal meaning in order to cleverly ridicule people with whom I disagree. Anyway, everyone's entitled to their own opinion, right? I think that's in the Constitution.
Also, have you ever eaten an Irish baby? I think that's wrong. Someone should write something about eating Irish babies.
It will be interesting to see if this holds up. If it does, I'll back Obama because a higher-than-usual turnout of young voters will crush congressional (House, not Senate) and state legislative Republicans.
He keep saying it's time for a change. Maybe this will be the catalyst that brings it about?
Dave Briggs :~)
Folks, seriously. His pseudonym is Jon Swift. As in "A Modest Proposal"?
To quote one of my favourite lines from The Tick's animated series: "READ A BOOK!"