The primary happens tomorrow, and I'm ready with my predictions (see my Iowa outcome).
Republicans:
McCain - 33%
Romney - 30%
Huckabee - 14%
Paul - 12%
Giuliani - 7%
Thompson - 3%
Hunter - 1%
Keyes - 0%
Democrats:
Obama - 45%
Clinton - 30%
Edwards - 19%
Richardson - 4%
Kucinich - 2%
Gravel - 0%
Pretty obvious, the main thing is that I think that we haven't seen the Obama crest in the polls, and I suspect that Paul will do better than Giuliani because of the dynamics of the New Hampshire electorate.
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Again, based on knowing almost jack-shit about politics compared to the pundits, here are the percentages I'm predicting after reading websites for a few hours....
Republican:
Huckabee - 29%
Romney - 27%
Thompson - 15%
McCain - 13%
Paul - 10%
Giuliani - 5%
Hunter - 2%
Keyes - 1%
Democrat:
Obama-…
I note that Slate is congratulating a reader who guessed the top 3 finishers for both Repubs and Dems. Well, I got everything right except flipping Biden and Richardson (heard some guy on the radio say he was going for Biden, so I did it for the hell of it!). OK, this is a bit easier I think...…
How did I do? First, I got the rank order pretty much down! The only mistake was swapping Richardson and Biden. Second, I didn't know how the Iowa Democratic Caucus was set up...otherwise, I would have been retarded to not assume it would have taken a "Winner Take All" outcome due to the 15%…
I don't really know much about politics...but that never stops people from blogging about politics, so here are my Iowa predictions ranked ordered from first to last.
Republican:
Huckabee
Romney
Thompson
Mccain
Paul
Giuliani
Hunter
Keyes
Democrat:
Obama
Edwards
Clinton
Biden
Richardson
Dodd…
Hmmm. Don't forget to post the results and your score. :)
The BookCrossers discussion group was circulating Berke Breathed's Opus cartoon about piety in election campaigns:
http://www.comics.com/wash/opus/archive/opus-20080106.html
You're guaranteed to be wrong, since your Democrat percentages add up to 102%.
You can add up to 102% with accumulated rounding errors - just consider the possibility that the unrounded values are almost halfway down to the next lower unit percentage: 44.6%, 29.6%, etc.
On the other hand, there's nobody named "Gravell" in the Democratic primary. ;)
Did you post this before or after Hillary shed her tears? You may want to take the possible "butterfly effect" of that emotional outburst into consideration.
Did you post this before or after Hillary shed her tears? You may want to take the possible "butterfly effect" of that emotional outburst into consideration.
before. but i'll stick with my predictions. her advisers are declaring a single-digit loss a 'win' now.
Looks like both your and my Dem predictions might be wrong.
yeah, odds on chance that obama will lose by 1% at this point (he is closing the lead too slowly).
Her people are calling a win a win now. Go figure.
Never trust the media to predict elections, they know nothing.