A Canadian bird flu non-case

Your policy of sitting on rumors until more detail shakes out serves the flu tracking community well, Revere, and I wish more folks on the flu boards would practice it.

On the other hand, that this rumor was put out there, followed-up by major media, and quickly disproven is a testament to a "system" that functioned well. Kind of a pleasant surprise, don't you think?

Come on people, this is obviously a coverup. Of course they're not going to tell us the truth, so the public doesn't panic. Haha...

Edmund, PIO's are notoriously uninformative. I dont buy into the coverup theory here. I had heard about this story from six different sources but none of the usual who, what, when, where, why until Tuesday. When those details came out with harder and harder evidence I sent an email to a friend who I suspected had very good contacts inside of the Ministry of Health Canada. Simultaneously I contacted an opposite inside of the equivalent of the Canadian DHS to check the story out. One came back that they had indeed heard about it and was going up the chain of command to get information, the other came back that the story was unfounded.

There is a Japanese proverb that says that you dont have to be big to be honest. Canada's population en toto is about that of Texas and I cant ever recall meeting someone up there that I didnt have any trust in. It is remote in hundreds of areas, communications links sometimes tenous between cities and there is the Quebec against the rest of Canada thing too. Both serve as SO MANY THINGS DO IN OUR COUNTRY to screw up what the right hand is doing, when the left is doing something else. Is there a case in Canada? I doubt it. On the other hand, if this was Romania, then I would be locking and loading. The Canadian response as I saw it across the board was, "WHAT?" It could have been a disinformation campaign as well. Who knows?

The Canadians were six kinds of royally pissed when SARS was winging its way in via flight after flight from China. They didnt hesitate to tell the US and both then got royally pissed along with the rest of the world at China for not telling anyone. SARS damned near got us, but working together they stopped it at its first major outbreak point which was Canada. It cost them hundreds of millions and the US/Canada were locked at the hip on the response. Our people were on the ground to assist in just under six hours after the notification. I can tell you that the President authorized extreme measures at that time to be taken to prevent it breaching into the country and it was done under the National Security Act. But our lives didnt change much.

Would they (the governments of Canada/US) lie to us? Probably only long enough to get the resources in place to prevent panic, throw the blanket over it, and stop it if able. Its not like people wont notice that kids start dropping like flies, airline flights get cancelled, outbound traffic leaving a city. Cover-up? I suggest it might have been a rumor mill test to see how fast 1. that the news would get out. 2. that the news would be better transmitted via the internet 3. or indeed an attempt at a cover up of a positive case. But there havent been any other cases. No red flags waving out there.

There are sub categories to all of these of course but the effect is the same as what Revere said, it served to alert the public. They dont get this kind of good shit in China, or North Korea and its likely just that this time around-shit. I can only suggest that if someone gets something that they think is solid that they first put it to the test of the who, what, why etc. Then ATTEMPT as many did to verify the story, then if unable and this is very important that it be posted as "Unconfirmed reports of-xxxxxx" happening.

Revere is a wonderful source and outlet to the medical community, as is Niman, Tara, and there is a huge network of conspiracy theorists that as Mulder used to say, "trusts no one." So one side can collect information but forward that shit on to them and they can give a read on it, verify it and then pass it back.They are not going to lie to doctors because they are the first ones to call a bullie on it if they think they are being stonewalled or lied too. They are purists in this and doctors hate to be wrong. Revere and I butt heads all the time on many issues but this aint one of them. You send shit out as "proof" you had better have your ducks in a row or get one of the above to start debunking or confirming it.

You should ALWAYS try to verify your sources. I report this kind of stuff always as "unconfirmed" until its on the news. Newsies get paid to field this kind of thing. Get your local news guys to check the stories physically themselves or run it up the network flagpoles. They will get the chance at an exclusive if its true and you can always ask for the credit for doing the horse ride but always give the information that you have been able to put to the test. Dont waste their time. There will be rumor enough when this or something else comes.

Shortly I think that the internet will post up "THE BIG ONE" long before the newsies do. I have established a trip wire for this and it goes something like this...."Unconfirmed reports are coming out of Jakarta Indonesia that 300 people have been taken to Sulioso hospital this afternoon with possible symptoms of H5N1. There are additional reports of 30 dead in Talang and the emergency rooms of Jakarta hospitals and surrounding areas are filling with people exhibiting symptoms. Some estimates are that there are 700 in line to be seen at the Suioso hospital alone." When I see something like this I will assume a high path outbreak has happened, then the plan goes into effect. We would have as little as two days before it showed here, to as long as three weeks.

This is one rumor I will pay rapt attention too and you can BET ON IT that if I get that it will go out in bold, as UNCONFIRMED but we will all know what it really means.

Thank you for your professionalism. It is greatly appreciated. :)

MRK - you say that, in Ottawa, one of your queries came back immediately as 'unfounded'- and the other was 'going up the chain' to find out - did you ever hear back re what was known 'up the chain'?

I am not yet ready to put this rumour to bed in my own mind. I have too often seen vehement denial one day, completely reversed the next.

Alternatively - the spin doc from Rimouski may have been telling the truth 'as he knew it', and perhaps the patient hadnt been admitted to Rimouski hospital, but rather transferred elsewhere 'under wraps'?

I dont think that Canadian hospitals are testing for H5N1, so I dont know how they can claim none exists?

Lets just say that up the chain on on side I trust implicitly to tell me everything. The other side is medically oriented. He is very versed in what would happen if a bird bug pandemic were starting and also be one fo the frontliners for trying to slow or stop it from medical center standpoint. He I can assure you would let you know if it were credible in any way.

I have checked four times since Tuesday with my friends in Canada and they have a pandemic plan that is top notch. There have been no advisories of anykind to "be on the lookout" or the what have you's. If a SINGLE H5 human case were out there in Canada or N. America, I can guarantee you that the patient would not be the only one if it were high path. Also there are to many lips out there that would be willing to wag because they have families and friends they would want to protect.

Quarantine of one? Okay, he would have gotten it from someone or something if there were a case so the chances of them tagging up Patient X for N. America right off the pop of pandemic is about zero even with surveillance. Statistically improbable. He would almost have to have a H5 detector on his head that lit up like a sign to do that. Then more likley, he or she would have to have infected someone by now as well and its about a 2-3 day incubation period before you become symptomatic. Where are the addtional cases or detection of it in birds, animals. GH dont get me wrong as I would be the first to be on top of these guys if they had been sandbagging us. This one is a miss I think unless something else shows up.

It would be remiss not to post something like this up with Tara, Revere, Niman, Wiki to let them review it. It would give everyone who is smart enough to stay up with current events an addtional couple of days jump because we are the sentries on the line as Boxun. com was with SARS. We just dont go to jail when there is wrong information posted. They went to jail for life for posting right information.

I started to mention something about it Tuesday but because I didnt have the touchie-feelies of the information I passed it on to the medical types on this blog who hit their sources...return of positive info? Nada. Newsworthy of course. My EMA friends in Canada got stonewalled when they asked and that initially bothered me to no end. Supposedly relieable sources went silent when they were questioned. I always look for defensive postures in these things, but when you get a full blown "WHAT?" or "Bullshit" then they either honestly dont know or they are telling the truth. I heard a lot of the Whats and BS's, and directly from the epidemiologist on staff at Rimouski.

Could we still be wrong? Sure. But you will still get your two day jump because this heah system works. It found a possible problem, it was posted, it was debunked in about a day... Try that with CBS. It took three months for the Bush -wrong font on the paper mess to get debunked and it cost Dan Rather his job. We have the luxury of not having anyone do anything but call us a dumbass or hey, you were wrong. I dont blame anyone for the postings. I am actually glad they did. When it does come you will provide information that will surely save a family or someones life by being in the know.

Hang in there folks. It might never come but if you think it is and you have some information send it to Revere, Tara (Aetiology) or Niman, or call you local news station. They are in the business and can run it up the flagpole. I am an NGO and if it comes, they wheel me out after the confirmation and we try to keep the fires tamped down as this shit starts a slow burn thru the population. I will be able to confirm it as the government confirms it. These guys can call it before the game starts Keep on posting!!!

It's all about diagnostic procedures. Some are more sensitive (with a number of false positives), and some are more specific (with a number of false negatives).

Rumors are sensitive (sometimes hypersensitive), and need a specificity layer (an active filter, if you like) placed on top of them.

We need both: the Reveres read rumors and other things, and give us their unique output.

When rumor becomes thunder, we'll know it soon enough.

Mr. Kruger,

For the sake of precision, Canada's population is larger than that of California (approx. 35 million). The population of Texas is approx. 23 million. So, Canada's population is 50% larger than Texas. Oh, and Canada has a GDP of over a trillion dollars, a true member of the G8.

We are not a backwater and are, in fact, a technological leader in telecommunications (owing to geography). Umm, no comm problems up here and there was no bird flu up here either (interesting premise for a rumour though).

Working for the gov't with more than just an interest in pandemic preparedness, this rumour is just that, a rumour. The gov't may not be completely forthright with the people (no lies to be sure) but they are forthright with me. If the rumour were true, I would have been advised.

You can sleep tonight. No BF confirmation in Canada yet. If something had happened, I wouldn't be rebutting you on a blog right now (apologies to the Reveres, I respect your work).

This rumour is just silly. If another "sars" like epidemic occurs, who are you going to trust? Chances are that you will listen to Canadian authorities.

OG-I used the current demographic off of the Wiki for Texas which reflected 28 million. Didnt mean to imply that you guys were backwards if thats how you took it. If bird flu comes, I will be one of Fox Mulders "trust no ones".

While some scares are unfounded others are not. Don't anyone forget that governments lie all the time. In the case of the 1918 flu lies were told so as not to damage the war effort. In other words lies were told that kept people going to mass meetings so that the warmongers could kill more people in a stupid war. Those lies gave the 1918 flu a head start. So to be able to kill more people our goverment told lies that cost the lives of more people. We the people have every reason in the world not to trust the word of our government. Further medical personel have told lies - for example to the people they experimented on in Tuskeegee AL. We are fools if we believe every rumor on the internet but we are big fools if we believe that every word out of the medical establishment or the government is the truth.

K: I agree you have to evaluate the information. In this case I checked with sources I believe to be reliable. Not much else I can do. Skeptics are some of the most gullible people I know, which is why they are frequently the marks for con men.

For the record, Recombinomics did not post anything anywhere about this report until it was being discussed on at least three message boards, beginning late Tuesday night. Recombinomics began investigating the story early Monday morning.

The commentary requested more information, and the request was made after two independent corroborations and widespread discussion on public forums.

The Wednesday morning commentary (the note was added Wednesday afternoon)is here

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11290601/H5N1_Rimouski.html

I assume flu bloggers are no different than anyone else on the internet who follow things that interest them almost compulsively. A rumor. Lots of talk. The rumor shot down. Lots more talk and conjecture. Just one more of many things that these amateur detectives will get uptight over. It is a good thing. We are all beneficiaries of this single minded attitude. We need everyone to co-operate. The flubies trust each other more than they trust offialdom. If the information was put out to discredit anyone, it failed.

For the record, I was joking above. Of course there are such things as government coverups and conspiracies. It's just that this rumor looks dead.

Edmund: I figured it out. Your sense of humor rep is safe.

Revere, coming directly from you I trust that you report honestly to the best of you knowledge. I trust you know your sources well as well so I feel mostly confident that this was a false scare. However I think it likely that the geese on Prince Edwards Islands were HPAI H5N1, I don't trust that the H5N1 found this year in the US is LPAI, and I strongly suspect that there are many BSE cows making it into the US and Canadian food supply.

On the whole I think people in Canada and the US trust their governments, Doctors, Corporations etc much more than they should.

Which reminds me of a song from the 60"s

What Did You Learn In School Today
Tom Paxton

What did you learn in school today, dear little boy of mine?
I learned that Washington never told a lie
I learned that soldiers seldom die
I learned that everybody's free
That's what the teacher said to me
And that's what I learned in school today
That's what I learned in school

What did you learn in school today, dear little boy of mine?
I learned that policemen are my friends
I learned that justice never ends
I learned that murderers die for their crimes
Even if we make a mistake sometimes
And that's what I learned in school today
That's what I learned in school

What did you learn in school today, dear little boy of mine?
I learned that war is not so bad
I learned about the great ones we have had
We fought in Germany and in France
And someday I might get my chance
And that's what I learned in school today
That's what I learned in school

What did you learn in school today, dear little boy of mine?
I learned that our government must be strong
It's always right and never wrong
Our leaders are the finest men
So we elect them again and again
And that's what I learned in school today
That's what I learned in school

Dr. Niman - I was glad you posted about the possible child with H5N1. Your post indicated the tentativeness of the inforamtion. I have been following your blog for about 2 years and you have been more right than wrong.

K: Actually I think I posted that same song not long ago. Tom Paxton is one of my favorites. Regarding BSE, I also think we have it in the US. We don't look for it (much) so we say we don't have it. Regarding HPAI H5N1 in the US, but it wouldn't surprise me too much, although once it gets into poultry it becomes quite visible and hard to cover up. But it's possible. As far as the case is concerned, I trust my sources on this one. They stated pretty unequivocally there was no way. I have nothing else to say except a source I trust told me that. It could turn out wrong but I highly doubt it.

You will note I did not condemn anyone for reporting this. False reports are bound to happen. In medicine there is a rule of thumb about operating on someone for appendicitis. You should be right about 80% of the time. If you are right more often you aren't operating enough since the downside of missing a case are so serious. If you are right less often, you aren't a very good diagnostician. I don't have a comparable rule of thumb for bird flu reports. We all just try to do our best. Can't ask for any more than that. Except maybe that we learn from our mistakes.

I got wind of this Sunday and waited until I saw other noise on the net with factuals, the w,w,w,w,w's were there before I started asking questions. The first report I got was from Alaska from a Fedex pilot who was using his blackberry. He said that he had heard it from a bush pilot from Canada who was in the office clearing customs with his flight. Okay, so none of the w's were fullfilled at all. Not even Rimouski.

By Tuesday the chatter had started and I went to two sources, three actually. Two were medical types, the other was a Canadian EMA. The first two came back with negatives, but the EMA said that when they asked they werent answered at all. This is to the guys who would be out to throw the blanket over it? I believe it was Wednesday when my medical types came back with a hard flat no, it aint there. One person who was aware of it before I was, believed a source that he had very strongly. I helped debunk it as well by doing email traces to see if it was a spoofmail. The email addresses didnt match up. See what being in the military does for you? You learn how to use the original language from DARPANET that was the original internet. You can find out lots about people that way.

Anyway, Thursday, my EMA guy called and said everyone on their side of the border was pissed because it simply wasnt true and that the standard stonewall routine was backfiring as CBS, NBC, ABC, Canadian Broadcasting, Reuters and a bunch of people were hammering them at Rimouski. They were as Revere said Famous for Fifteen. The source of the original story is unknown. Attempt at discrediting individuals? Maybe. I dont know. Personally folks I think every rumor should be reported as "Rumor Mill News" to Revere, Niman, Tara and let them decide which is factual. I know I have bounced things off of them before, and long before commenting and their explanations may be a little biased but the scientists in all of them shows up long before the spin. With Revere spin begins ONLY at the political table, not the science. Niman has been racking up some pretty big wins in the prediction column, Tara (Aetiology) is the speaking in simple terms person. Thats three and its more than 99.99999% of this planet has to go on. If those three toss down and say pandemic, that stuff in the back yard comes out of the ground, the concertina wire goes up and the fields of fire are established.

Governments in 1918 lied to people. They will lie again until we get about 1000 cases. There is no doubt that they killed thousands in the war bonds drives. They just didnt know. Different day, same problem. We are smarter now. This rumor got debunked and damned fast. If you get something and you dont want to post then send me an email at memphisservices@bellsouth.net and I will do what I can to degovernmentalize it at the very least. If this one gave you the jumpies, what will you do when the big one comes?

Revere I hear what you are saying about being right with appendicitis (and other medical diagnosis). In this case you have to be right about trusting your source. Unless your source is one of the people in the hospital in question, your source is trusting someone else. I bet you prefer to make diagnosis of appendicitis from your own examination, not from reports of reports....

My comments are not directed to you or anyone who did did not report this (I am sorry if I wrote in such a way that it seemed they were)...they are more about what we face concerning H5N1. Already we have WHO withholding sequences - presumably WHO officials are professionals who are considered trustworthy people. Yet for some reason, when we face the most likely possibility of a worldwide pandemic in recent times, they are withholding from researchers the information that they need to try to avert this. Shouldn't we be putting all the best minds to work on this with all the information. This does not give me great confidence that WHO (etc.) are going to be forthcoming with accurate, timely, truthful information for the general public if they are not doing so for the researchers. I am left to assume that they have agendas that may be in conflict with the welfare of the general public.

You are probably right that there is no child in Canada with symptoms of H5N1.

However if there was a child with H5N1 symptoms I would have plenty of grounds to believe the hospital and goverment would deny it (in the hopes that that it is just one case and treatable so why panic the people). Given that we have no evidence that H5N1 has become highly efficient H2H and knowing how people can panic at this point that might be a denial that could be justified. The withholding of the sequences IMO cannot be justified and is of much greater concern.

K. I didn't take offense. I was just explaining what I thought. In this case my source went to the very top, someone who would have known if there were even a suspect case. They could have been lying, of course. But I had reason to think they weren't.

I don't think the start of a pandemic will be covered up by WHO or CDC or similar bodies. I have lots of reasons to be wary of what they say, but covering up the start of a pandemic isn't very likely, IMO. You have to make some decisions on whom you are going to rely on and whom you are not going to rely on and I've made those choices based on experience, personal relationships and whatever evidence I can glean. Any of us can be wrong. We just try to do the best we can. But too much distrust is just as dangerous as too much trust in my instances. There's always at least too ways, to err.

This is yet another example of how Henry Niman plays the flu community for a bunch of fools. The single biggest mistake anyone could possibly make is to take anything he says as serious.

Sandra, would you say this is cause for concern?

Patch the only cause for concern is that some people continue to take Henry Niman seriously. He's provent time and time again to be nothing more that a self promoting snakeoil salesman and his antics do nothing but hurt the flu community as a whole.

Here's a man that spends his days surfing the net for supportive rumors, then blasts the message boards to prove his junk science to a captive audience of laypersons. The whole while he refuses to publish peer reviewed papers while maintaining that he's right and everyone else is wrong. The punchline is that Henry is rarely right. His ridiculous and self serving proclaimations from SAR's to BF have established that as fact.

I did not think this child in Rimouski had H2H H5N1 - if anything I was thinking B2H.

Quebec hospitals frequently have sick kids flown in from northern aboriginal outposts (without their parents).

Their parents are often 'hunters and gatherers' - frequently in contact with migratory wild birds, so it would not have been at all out of the question to suspect H5N1 if the child were airlifted in from up there! Completely reasonable in fact!!

The incidence of TB is high in those northern outposts also. Great place for all the little virii to do their happy dance!!

My 'northern outpost airlift' theory could explain why RMK heard it first from fedex pilot via bush pilot - the bush pilot probably flew the kid to Rimouski?? So he would certainly have known what was 'suspected diagnosis' - wonder if they instituted any protective measures for the pilot on the plane?

Sandra, can you state your credentials to show that you have expert knowledge that Dr. Niman is wrong. Are you a scientist? If so in what field?

I am a layperson but his expressed concerns about what H5N1 might do next have seemed to be quite accurate in the several years that I have followed his postings.

How specifically has he hurt the flu community?

What specifially has he stated that is proven false?

I certainly don't want to sit around worried that H5N1 might be flying across the Atlantic as we speak on wings of a duck because Dr. Niman is selling me a bill of goods. I don't want to be worried that some unknown resevoir is harboring H5N1 in Indonesia because Dr. Niman can't read virus sequences worth a damn. I don't want to be alerted to WHO hoarding sequences if in fact they have made them available to any scientist who wants to find the key to avoiding a pandemic.

I have to second what K just wrote to Sandra re Niman.

I have read and tried to analyze and understand exactly what Niman is saying and doing on his website. Yes, I am a "layperson", but have enough science background to make sense of it. Laypersons are not all necessarily uneducated and gullible fools. I see hard data which traces the changes in genetic sequences of the H5N1 virus over time and space, regardless of what the method of these changes might have been. That's the most important thing he posts, and it is the main thing he posts. I have yet to see him self promoting anything or selling anything. He lets the data largely speak for itself, and usually his ending is simply to ask for (insist on?) more data so he can continue his work of tracing the genetics. When he does issue warnings to us regarding the fact that these changes indicate to him that we are getting closer to a pandemic, he does so in a rational manner, stating it as "cause for concern." In what way does that "hurt the flu community." He is not telling anyone else not to research reassortment or mutation as possible modes, he is merely pursuing his own line of research. He is not selling medicines or vaccines based on his work to the "flu community" or us "laypeople - although I am sure he hopes to someday - he is merely posting data. I find his data interesting, informative, and relevant. I would like to know, as K asked, precisely what is your background that makes you so certain that Niman is a fraud? My understanding is that the whole issue of how the flu virus undergoes changes to make it into a pandemic is still up in the air and under investigation, so that Niman's theory is just as plausible as any other. You owe an explanation, I think.

In my opinion, Sandra, perhaps you might want to tone it down. If I were Niman, I might consider tracing who you are and prosecuting for Libel..."self promoting snake oil salesman", "junk science" and some of your other derogatory statements are pretty close to the definition of "a spoken or written statement ...that gives an unjustly unfavorable impression of a person or thing."

If gharris's information about the intial source (RMK heard it first from fedex pilot via bush pilot)is accurate, a bush pilot may have flown a sick child to the hospital. If in fact this is the case, the denial of H5N1 would be more convincing if the authorities said that a sick child was flown into the hospital with XYZ symptoms and has been diagnosed as having ABC disease.

The denial reads thus "It's a false rumor," Dr. Patrick Dolce, head of infection control at the hospital in Rimouski, Quebec, told Reuters. "Everything is false; there is no patient, no nothing."

It would be interesting to find out for sure if a child was flown in. If that part is true then methinks they are lying about the H5N1 or the denial would read differently.

If you need me to explain to you how and when Niman has been wrong, then the problem might be that you haven't paid attention to what he's said. His many predictions/proclaimations are public record. As far as toning it down, I simply challenge Henry to have one single recombination paper peer reviewed. Furthermore, I challenge him to cite one credible virologist that agrees with his ridiculous theories. The fact he won't/can't says everything that needs to be said about him.

gharris: It is always possible someone is stonewalling or lying. I can tell you this much, however. I had it checked with someone very high up and in a position to know. If this person lied to my source he/she would know there would be consequences. The check wasn't via a member of the public asking for information. It was through someone whose question meant something and to whom the information source would not be anxious to lie. As far as I am and was concerned, there was no case. I really have no more to say about something there is nothing to say about.

Sandra, if you refuse to cite one specific instance in which Dr. Niman is wrong, I am can only conclude that you can't.

Dr. Niman at least posts his information - where he got his degree, etc. We know none of that about you.

In the following clip from an article in the NY Times, it says that a study by scientists from WHO and the US Navy agreed with arguments previously offered by Dr. Niman concerning H2H. So I have offered one specific instance in which other scientists agreed that Dr. Niman was right...

Your turn - or does your bluster cover the fact that you cannot cite any instances to make your case, and your refusal to reveal any credentials indicate that you have none in this field.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/04/world/asia/04flu.html?ex=1165208400&e…

Dr. Henry L. Niman, a biochemist in Pittsburgh who has become a hero to many Internet flu watchers and a gadfly to public health authorities, has argued for weeks that there have been 20 to 30 human-to-human infections.

Dr. Niman says the authors of the Emerging Infectious Diseases article were too conservative: even though the dates in it were fragmentary, it was possible to infer that in about 10 of the 15 cases, there was a gap in onset dates of at least five days, which would fit with the flu's incubation time of two to five days.

And in a study published just last month about a village in Azerbaijan, scientists from the W.H.O. and the United States Navy said human-to-human transmission was possible. That conclusion essentially agreed with what Dr. Niman had been arguing since early March that it was unlikely that seven infections among six relatives and a neighbor, with onset dates stretching from Feb. 15 to March 4, had all been picked up from dying wild swans that the family had plucked for feathers in a nearby swamp in early February.

K, I don't have time to do research for you but I'll give you a couple of instances where Henry was completely wrong. This of course is in addition to the "Canadian Bird Flu Non-Case".

By the way, I am asking him to cite one credible virologist that agrees with his recombination theory. Not someone that simple agrees with something he said. You clearly misunderstood the point of my post.

"The latest data appears to be moving the pandemic to phase 6." - Niman June 17, 2005

"Since the 2005 flu pandemic is entering the final phase 6, a review of the H5N1 pandemic timeline is useful. H5N1 progressed in Asia from a bird flu in 1996 to a human pandemic in 2005." - Niman June 20, 2005

"These data suggest the transmission of H5N1 in northern Vietnam and Thailand raises the pandemic phase to 5 or 6, yet WHO maintains that there is limited human-to-human transmission and classifies the pandemic as phase 3.

This designation is clearly deliberately misleading. Moreover, Thailand is cited as model for control of H5N1 in humans because of no confirmed cases in 2005, yet appears to be a model for supression of reporting of human cases in and by the media." - Niman October 25, 2005

Sandra: we've read comments like yours before on this blog. It's not a new element you're bringing in here. I will speak for myself in that I am sick and tired of comments repeating over and again without any concrete, special content I can learn something new from.
Henry Niman is one of the guys who post here sometimes and the negative reactions on his postings have never killed him by some definitive offensive publication of evidence.
As Revere is not condemning anyone for reporting things, I for myself am glad to hear about the rumours and to be able to read Niman's line of thinking on his found rumours and sequences.
In fact, IMHO the message of this posting of Revere is exactly about how to deal with rumours in a professional, factfinding and downplaying way.

I am very interested in the itchy pitchy voice in which you're attacking Niman. What harm has he been doing to you and how come you must have him from all persons posting on this blog?

Sandra, seems like Dr. Niman was not the only one stating that we might be at stage 6

"We may be at almost the last stage before the pandemic virus may emerge," Dr. Jai P. Narain, Director of WHO's communicable diseases department told a news conference on the sidelines of a Southeast Asia health summit in the Sri Lankan capital.

"Whether the avian influenza pandemic will occur, that is not the question any more, (but) as to when the pandemic will occur," he added. (Reuters via ABC News)

This comment was posted by Effect Measure not Dr, Niman. http://effectmeasure.blogspot.com/2005/09/who-almost-last-stage-before-…

Per Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_pandemic
"The pandemic stage 6 may be marked by two or more waves. For example, the initial wave of the Spanish Influenza pandemic in the spring of 1918 was so mild in its effects that it received the dismissive nickname of the "three day flu." But when the second wave hit North America a few months later in the summer of 1918, it was lethal. Apparently in the interim the novel H1N1 pandemic strain had added the gene or genes that made the final wave a killer. Perhaps the effects of the lethal second wave would have been even more devastating if the innocuous first wave had not already passed through the population, leaving in its wake at least some immune response to the surface antigens presented by the H1N1 in both waves."

Since in the 1918 the first wave was mild it is quite possible that a first mild wave of H5N1 Pandemic has occurred in China where things can be quite hidden.

You have not yet made your case.

Meanwhile at http://vir.sgmjournals.org/cgi/content/full/80/10/2535

Review Article
Evolutionary aspects of recombination in RNA viruses
Michael Worobey1 and Edward C. Holmes1

Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK1

Author for correspondence: Michael Worobey.Fax +44 1865 310447. e-mail michael.worobey@zoo.ox.ac.uk

OK, boys and girls. Recess is over. The Niman discussion is also over. As always it is reached the non-constructive point. We have a big job to do. Let's set about doing it.

Seems to me that Sandra gave K what he/she was asking for.

I remember many of the statements Sandra provides. And I remember times Dr. Niman appeared to deliberate create drama.

I believe Dr. Niman's theories are worthy of consideration. The problem is, he and many of his followers rarely consider anything else. Their only concern seems to be, seeing the "two pillars of Influenza crumble". And considering any alternative views is a waste of time.

Patch, thanks for demonstrating the ability to think. You are correct, I was simply responding and giving K a couple of examples were Henry was dead wrong. If K would pay me for my time I could provide a lot more examples. Somehow, however, I don't think it would matter as K would probably continue to ignore the truth (don't confuse me with the facts my minds made up).

Henry has an agenda and truth be damned. If he were serious about his theories he'd simply submit a paper for peer review. The fact that he won't speaks volumes.

revere, Without going into detail on Rimouski, or the withholding of Prince Edward Island data on the PCR isert size of H5 from the dead farm goose in June, or the Beijing Genome Institutute publishing data on H5N1 recombination, it is worth going into detail on governemnt denials of initial H5N1 cases.

In most instances, human H5N1 is not acknowledged until there is a confirmed cluster. Ths was clearly true for Indonesia, China, Turkey, Iraq, and Azerbaijan. Moreover, in all cases the initial government response was something else. Indonesia was bacterial pneumonia, China was non-H5N1 pneumonia, Turkey all four siblings tested negative, Iraq was a heart condition. Azerbaijan was a heart condition. In all cases H5N1 was eventually confirmed and in all cases the index case was part of a confirmed cluster.

As far as WHO denials are concerned, the Iraq case is one of the most clear cut. The case was in northen Iraq several weeks after the Turkey outbreak. Initial media reports indicated the attending physician said the symptoms matched those of the cases in bordering Turkey.

WHO (Dick Thompson) issued a statement that WHO had investigated the case and had discounted the possibility that the case was H5N1 and said death was caused by a heart problem. It was only after the uncle of the index case (who cared for her) developed symptoms (or died), that the original "heart problem" case became a confirmed H5N1 case.

There have since been 6 human H5N1 sequences released from Iraq (5 released a couple of days ago), which at best came from the three confirmed cases (index case, her uncle, and one survivor), leaving no doubt that the "heart problem" case investigated by WHO, was Qinghai H5N1 (as was all reported H5N1 outbreaks in Russia, Mongolia, Azerbaijan, India, Afghanistan, the Middle East, Europe, Africa, and almost certainly Prince Edward Island in June).

There is no controversy about the H5N1 spread via wild birds to Europe, the Middle and Africa, although comments at this site seem to suggest otherwise. Similarly, there is no doubt that initail government comments on H5N1 index cases are almost always false.

The data are VERY clear.

Revere, I apologize for getting into a futile discussion of whether Dr. Niman is right or not. As you say we need to get back to the matter at hand. H5N1 could become a worldwide pandemic. This will affect everyone if it does in major and possibly disatrous ways. It behooves all the countries of the world to put all the flu researchers of the world to work on the problem with the best tools and the most honest and complete information possible. Whether or not Dr. Niman's theories or worries are correct, Dr. Niman's voice is one of the strongest and most persistent for the release of the sequences. Whether his motives are to prove his theory, to make his vaccine or to more nobly save a lot of lives is irrelevant. We should applaud his call for the release of the sequences and add our voices to it. He is not calling for the release of the sequences for himself alone but for all the researchers in this field.

Since I have asked others to identify themselves I will do so myself. I am Kathy Russell, a semi-retired bookkeeper in AL. I have no expertise in genetics but I know something about open and complete information accounting information.

Robert Wright in the book Non-Zero makes the case for more minds working on problems as more likely to find solutions. Its time for WHO and all the governments of the world to provide the world community of researchers with all the info they have as if their lives depended on it - which they may.

K: Thanks for the heartfelt comment. I think many of us want the sequences released, we on some very general principles of openness in science that go beyond bird flu. The sequence problem is a symptom, not the disease. Henry is a sequence person, so it is a preoccupation of his. We join you in asking for more heads, hands and hearts on this issue, but realistically it is only one of many urgent ones. We need to increase the size of the pie, not just the size of a slice. Regarding increased efforts by flu researchers, in point of fact there aren't many flu researchers. Some major medical cities have none (I'm talking bench researchers). This is also an investment problem. Grant funding is critical here, not just for the research that is produced with it but for the graduate students that will get trained in influenza research and then go on to careers of their own. It is a multiplier effect. For the record, we have no grant funding in the influenza area. We are extremely well funded by NIH but in another area, so when we call for more funding for influenza research it can only hurt us if it is a zero sum game.

Thanks Revere - I had no idea that there were so very few researchers in the field. I myself personally would prefer to see the public health system strengthened as the number 1 priority for expending money with drugs and vaccine far behind. (it would reap benefits whether or not we have a pandemic) But as I understand it, it would cost no money at all to release the sequences - just the quick removal of password protection. That being the case releasing the sequences to those who are researching would not cost anything and take no money away from any other part of the effort.

MRK above - "I dont blame anyone for the postings. I am actually glad they did."

MRK - Now that you have been 'outed' as MIH's source, I suppose you ARE "glad they did" - saved you the embarrassment of putting it out there yourself!!

Since you have such unimpeachable connections in high places, perhaps next time you will check the rumour out yourself, before you get everybody else to waste their time and credibility!

In hindsight, your response to me above is patronizing in the extreme!

K: I agree about the sequences, as we've made clear here often. It would be cheap (but unfortunately is not easy) and in cost benefit terms probably highly favorable. It is not a panacea and I doubt in the last analysis if it will be shown to have had much effect on the course of events, but it is still the right thing to do.

to many others: I understand the heat generated by this case, however it turns out (and it seems almost certain at this point it is a non-case, but I try always to assume we might learn different about almost anything). I would like to close the conversation on it and on the relative value of Henry's contributions just because we all have better things to do. Everyone has had a chance to make their views clear and no one has been censored. I do not close comment threads (at least I never have) but I am asking everyone to let this one go and move on. I probably won't stop you if you perseverate, but I hope you won't and am asking you all not to.

gharris-Perhaps you might consider my friend that when I posted it to MIH it was as an unconfirmed report. She has kids that she looks after and I am sensitive to that. It was posted on FluWikie as unconfirmed by MIH and I had no knowlege that she did. It was also the same on FluTalk I believe. I didnt post anything to anyone except certain individuals and only as unconfirmed. There is and was a lot of things going on that were strange about this and pal I dont answer to you for anything. I tried to verify it, when I couldn't I said so when I sent this along to Mary.

If your delicate sensitivities reach into my personal postings then I get a little warmed up. Be advised I immediately also sent it to medical types there cowboy and they couldnt get it verified either. But something was clearly going on. As stated before I have sources inside of government that you will and would never see or hear from. If this crap comes I get the dubious honor of working in a pandemic environment while you get to sit back and pontificate. My sources are my own and as far as outing something thats a term used when you are involved in the spying business. That I am sure is not your day job.

Also gGet off of MIH's back, she was just trying to be helpful and everything she posted was as RUMOR or UNCONFIRMED REPORT. She sent me an email yesterday and said that the people on the Wikie are flat vicious. I think I might concur with that assessment

Revere: "[Full independent research access to global H5 sequences] It is not a panacea and I doubt in the last analysis if it will be shown to have had much effect on the course of events, but it is still the right thing to do..."

Unrestricted access to H5 sequence samples would, if globally released, analyzed and published, chart the homologous trajectory of recombination within various regional transgenic H5 strains. Recent changes in H5 Qinghai strain receptor binding domain (RBD) show an increased affinity for human receptors, leading to an efficient human to humans (H2H) transmission without a
decrease in case fatality rate. Recent human Qinghai sequences contain amino acids coding for Influenza B -- this collated info on sequence evolution 'CAN' make significant political, economic and medical treatment differences "on the course of events."

Indeed, there are many reasons why sequence data is crucial in the global efforts at H2H H5 prevention: I urge you to re-read Niman's, "Highly Likely, H5N1 On South Korean Farms (November 23 2006)

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11230601/H5N1_Korea_Likely.html

Cheers:*) and Aloha pumehana -- Jon

PS: I came to the "recombination paradigm" not thru Niman and Recombinomics.com, but via ISIS articles on genetically modified crops and the gene flow dangers of hyper-accelerated horizonal gene transfer...

C21*S*E*Research -- The Politics of Horizontal Gene Transfer (How did H2H H5 evolve!?!)

I suspected genetic engineering was dangerous way back
in the late 90s when first digesting a tv news item on
H5N1 contamination in Hong Kong -- six people (adults
and kids) cytokine storm died of this transgenic flu during a late 1997 outbreak in Hong Kong's Special Administrative Region.

Even a major pharma company, Roche, was worried back
in 1997 bout the global implications -- in its Media
News 16 (May 2006) Roche says:

"Roche has been in discussions with governments as
early as 1997 regarding pandemic preparedness..."

http://www.roche.com/med-cor-2006-05-16

So how did H5N1 get here?

H5N1 is a transgenic polymorphic pathogen -- a highly
mutable cross species multi-strained virus probably
CaMV 35S promoter gene flow originating from genetic
engineering.

Since the mid 90s, dietary consumption of GM
(genetically modified) crops by birds, animals and
humans (who eat crops, birds and animals) has
increased dramatically. It is very probable GM crops
containing CaMV 35S transcription promoter are the
horizontal gene transfer (HGT) causation vector thru
which transgenic viral pathogens (eg. H5N1) are
recombining (homologously) into existence with such
ease, speed and spread.

The "homologous recombination" process has, according
to Recombinomics.com, always been the explanation for
viral evolution and not "random mutation". But, the
thang bout the technology of potpourri tweaking GM
organisms sees "hyper-acceleration" entering natural
DNA evolution -- thangs move a durn sight faster...

Recombinomics -- Random Mutation Explanation of Flu
Genetics Is Fatally Flawed (March 30, 2006) @

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03300602/Random_Mutation_Flawed.html

The defence against evolving polymorphic viruses is
rather simple and has been repeated many times by
numerous scientists worldwide -- cease the corporate
controlled release of genetically modified organisms
within the global environment.

Prior to the end of 2005, efforts in sequence tracking
the genesis of H5N1 were criminally lackluster -- we now know transgenic strains are present in birds and mammalian populations...

But still, the question remains unanswered, how did a
transgenic virus appear out of nowhere?

The probable (but unproven) cross species vector is
GM/GE feed fed to domestic fowl from the mid 1990s to
present, HGT recombining H5N1 (via CaMV 35S promoter)
into a transgenic polymorphic pathogen, now infecting and killing humans...

So,basically I'm saying gene flow has occurred as a
consequence of transgenic crops doing a CaMV 35S
promoter recombination hotspot remix in the bellies
(and bodies) of all organisms consuming such crops.

Prof. Joe Cummins was the first to warn against using
the CaMV 35S promoter or any viral genes in plants
because it had been shown that such viral transgenes
in plants could gene flow recombine with naturally
occurring viruses to generate, in some cases,
super-infectious viruses.

Subsequently, the CaMV 35S promoter has been found to
substitute for the promoter of many plant and animal
viruses to produce infectious viruses.

* Remixed excerpt ISIS Press Release 29/11/04 -- Fluid
Genome & Beyond @

http://www.i-sis.org.uk/Fluidgenomeandbeyond.php

MRK - I am a 70-something (crippled)Canadian grandmother - I also have my own contacts in Ottawa. Am I supposed to be impressed by yours? Just what is it you think I should be doing in the pandemic, besides being your ferret? Nobody likes to feel manipulated! And by the way, MIH will tell you that I have been nothing except helpful in this little drama!

Hi Randy, Hi gharris,

I love you both. We are all in this together and no one is trying to take advantage of anyone else. g, i'm sure Randy didn't mean anything condescending...I went back and read over his post to you. He's just being the military type guy he is, straight to business. And what he told you is absolutely true: he sent me a heads up strictly as a friend so I could warn my kids. It was totally my decision to post it on rumors. And Randy, g has definitely been 100% on my side regarding the rumor flap over on wikie. Actually when I said they could be vicious, it was towards Niman that I was referring. Only one person, who misspelled Hawaii while denigrating Hawaiian intelligence, personally attacked me, and most of the other wikians quickly admonished him/her. I do, however, think "outed" was a poor choice of words...made me feel like I had betrayed a friend, when all I had done was respond to your post which discussed MRK as the source of the original bush pilot rumor. So, let's all take a deep breath, shake hands and move on. As revere says, we have much more important things to worry about.

The currently proposed GISAID minimum 6 month-open end embargo of H5N1 sequences promoted by the CDC will effectively shut the door to in-real-time-knowledge of sequences.

Free Speech is dead. Mario Savio and the children of the 60's, where are you?

Dr. Capua caved having faced what imo has been the cold fortnight of being blocked from the sequences by the CDC, and the WHO sequencing labs.

The world's public is now assured of being unable to prepare timely for an H5N1 pandemic.

What's happening to full disclosure?

What happens to the many companies and small number of individuals who planned to know and act based on the leading edge information?

>Robert Wright in the book Non-Zero makes the case for more minds working on problems as more likely to find solutions. Its time for WHO and all the governments of the world to provide the world community of researchers with all the info they have as if their lives depended on it - which they may.

Posted by: K | December 3, 2006 11:31 AM

As someone who prefers to keep out of the fray, I am somewhat dismayed at the fallout. Have seen a number of these frenzies, and have always stepped aside and been saddened by the extreme reactions. So far, nothing has come out of these volitile discussions that I can see as worthwhile. Only more people who distrust each other and everything in the news and everybody in authority, which is not unusual. Yet there is an element of almost paranoid thinking that seems to become more pronounced with each of these situations.Perhaps that is inevitable given the gravity of a possible pandemic. Perhaps it is reasonable. Can't say that I like seeing peoples good sense thrown to the winds. Not being prone to high anxiety very often, it seems counterproductive.

Diana, you havent seen anything yet. Wait til its really rolling out there when it actually breaks. I expect open internet warfare.