The NCAA tournament is finally here and I'm excited. Duke got the overall #1 seed, but I don't think they're the favorite to win it all. UConn is clearly the best, deepest and most talented team and I think they have to play down a bit for anyone else to beat them, including Duke. Frankly, I think Duke is very vulnerable to an upset this year. Neutralize Redick and you can beat them. Here are my thoughts on the brackets.
Atlanta Region: Duke is the #1 seed. Texas is a tough #2 seed and forget the fact that Duke beat Texas by 31 in December. This is not the same Texas team, they're much tougher. Iowa is going to be a tough out as well. They have a very experienced team. Jeff Horner is a good point guard who can shoot the lights out and they have an endless supply of 6'10 guys off the bench who can all play. I can't believe GW is a #8 seed with a 26-2 record. They should be at least a #5 seed. And Syracuse is on a serious roll right now. Also, don't forget about West Virginia, a final four team last year returning almost everyone. They're a very difficult team to guard because their big guys are such good shooters. I think Duke comes out of this region, but don't overlook Iowa.
Oakland region: Gonzaga got screwed with a #3 seed; they should be a #2. If they end up playing UCLA, they'll win that game. Kansas is a very dangerous 4 seed, so young and talented and on a roll coming in to the tournament. A potential Memphis/Pitt matchup would be very interesting, such a clash of styles. Pitt likes to grind it out, Memphis wants to get out and run. I'm picking Gonzaga to come out of this region.
Washington DC region: UConn gets the easiest #2 seed in Tennessee, who should have been a 3 or even a 4. Intriguing rematch between Michigan State and North Carolina in the second round. The winner of that game takes on UConn to go to the final four, I think. UConn should come out of here, but Carolina has a chance if they keep their poise.
Minneapolis region: This is the best and deepest region, in my opinion. Ohio State is tough, but relies too much on the 3 point shot and I don't think they can sustain good shooting for 4 games to make the final four. I look for Georgetown to take them out in the second round. Florida is a dangerous team, as is Oklahoma. A Florida/Georgetown game in the sweet 16 would be great. Boston College is a dangerous team that could make the elite 8 and Wisconsin is a team you can never look past for their unusual style of play. They always outplay their seed in the tournament. This one really is a crapshoot. There are 4 or 5 teams that could come out of this region and I don't know who it will be.
A Duke-Gonzaga game in the final four would be a great match for CBS, matching the nation's two best players. They'd love that storyline. I saw an interview with Adam Morrison last night and he was very gracious when talking about Redick. He said if he doesn't win player of the year, he'll be happy to see it go to his buddy who stayed 4 years at a great school. Very classy. And a Duke/UConn finale would be a dream scenario for the network.
And despite being a Duke fan, I'll say it - isn't it about time Jim Calhoun got as much attention and media play as Coach K? This guy has won two NCAA championships in the last 6 years, beating Duke both times to win it. And he's done it in Storrs, Connecticut, for crying out loud, where there was no basketball tradition at all before he arrived. I know he's in the hall of fame already, but he doesn't get the kind of fevered admiration that Coach K does and he ought to. He's a great, great coach.
Will Duke get that far? Good question. I told someone the other day that I didn't think this Duke team could win a championship, that they've overachieved to this point. But over the last week in the ACC tournament, we've seen two of the freshmen really step up their games. If Paulus and McRoberts keep playing the way they have lately, Duke is a much, much tougher team to beat. And I think they got a favorable draw. They really don't look like they've got a team that can beat them until the elite 8 (they'll torch Syracuse's zone defense; you can't zone Duke) when they'll likely face either Texas or Iowa (or Cal, which is a legit sleeper team with a really good front line and an all-Pac 10 point guard).
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Paulus was playing like a man possessed last night. I've been skeptical of this Duke team all year, as they really don't have the kind of overpowering talent they've had before, but if J.J. is on (and he always seems to be, in clutch situations), Shelden stays out of foul trouble, and the young guys are as fiery as they were against BC . . it's going to be an interesting run. You can tell J.J. doesn't want to come up empty-handed again this year--as soon as the buzzer sounded, he was looking to the Final Four. He was barely there during the postgame interviews.
I'm not sure about Texas, what with Buckman's apparent lack of confidence, but we'll see if he steps it up again.
Out of curiosity, what were your 5-12 picks?
Yeah, baby!
The problem I see with Duke is their defense. They just seem a step slower than the other guys. You can make that up with a really committed team concept where everyone's got everyone else's back, but it wears you out after a while. I saw the same thing with Duke vs. BC as I did against UNC -- too many easy layups and dunks, too many guys in the other jersey racing ahead of the transition defense, and not enough footspeed to keep up with better athletes.
Having said that, I think Urizen's right in that if J.J. catches fire it's pretty much all over. They win or lose on how well he is shooting, partly because (obviously) they need the points, but moreso because I think his success gives them an extra sense of fire and urgency they need to hustle harder on both ends of the floor.
As far as Texas is concerned, I don't know from game to game which team is going to show up. I was pretty disappointed in their performance in the Big XII Championship game, but Kansas was on fire from outside. Texas' strength in the tournament is definitely their inside presence, but all too often their big men play small. And of course the old saw is that it's guard play that wins titles. And while Texas has good guards, it's not their strength.
Frankly, I don't think either Duke or Texas is going to make it to the Final Four. I wish there was a tournament bracket online where a group could all track each other's picks, it would be fun to see how the "DotCW" crew would do.
Such a modern viewpoint of UConn. The tradition is actually fairly long. In the late 60s, UConn was a basketball powerhouse, going to NCAA and other post-season tournaments.
Look up Toby Kimbell, who ended up playing for the Celtics, and Wes Balasuknia (probably spelled wrong) who was the ABA three-point shooting champion.
A lot of people are writing off Syracuse, saying that their run was a fluke. Ed, you obviously fall the other way. I'm with you. They're in a tough bracket, but who is to say they can't make a run like they did a few years ago?
There's also talk about Gerry McNamara's pro prospects. Obviously, his draft stock has skyrocketed. I see him as somewhere around Jameer Nelson, but a MUCH better shooter. Make of that what you will for the pros, but Jameer Nelson is contributing on a nightly basis for Orlando.
Urizen wrote:
I haven't gone through the whole bracket yet and picked all the games, but looking at the 5/12 matchups I don't see any obvious potential upsets as I saw last year. Syracuse and Texas A&M has some potential if it turns out that Syracuse has a letdown after all they've had to do just to get there over the last couple weeks. Syracuse is very inconsistent, of course. They lose by 39 to Depaul, then turn around and beat 3 ranked teams in a row in the Big East tournament. So potentially, that could be one.
Pitt and Kent State, I can't imagine an upset there. Pitt has a huge size advantage and Kent State doesn't defend all that well. They're gonna have to shoot 30 3s and hit 18 of them to have a chance.
Washington and Utah State, I don't see an upset there. Washington, if anything, is underrated and could make a run to at least the Sweet Sixteen.
Nevada and Montana, I know nothing about Montana. Nevada is a tough team with one of the best unknown big men in the nation in Nick Fazekis. I just don't know a thing about Montana to say whether this could be an upset.
Frodo wrote:
I did some checking and I stand by my statement In 1976, they made the sweet sixteen of the NCAA tournament; prior to that, in their entire history, they had a total of 3 wins in the tournament. Calhoun took over in 1986, took them to the NCAA tournament in 1990 and the rest is glorious history. Prior to that, it was pretty weak.
FishyFred wrote:
Well, they've been very inconsistent. That blowout loss to Depaul looks really bad. Their problem is that they got put in a very tough draw. LSU is a very dangerous second round matchup, as is Iona if they should beat LSU. And in the third round, Duke should destroy that 2/3 zone.
I think McNamara will be a late first round or early second round pick. He's a much better shooter than Nelson, but not nearly as quick or as good a ballhandler. He's also a lot bigger than Nelson. He's something of a poor man's JJ Redick, though he's played the point most of the time. His biggest strength is his toughness and heart. The kid is a warrior. I think he'll stick in the NBA and be a solid role player.
Forget Duke, Ed. This evening, Steven Colbert explained why ORU will win it all this year... they have a 900-foot Jesus on their side. He pointed out that back in 1980 Oral Roberts had a vision of a 900 foot tall Jesus, and since Jesus exists outside of space and time, there is no question as to his eligibility! They even showed what he would look like on the court--the opponents would basically be going against a giant foot! Funny stuff... it may be on the Colbert Report web site at some point if you missed it (and all the repeats).
All I've got to say is, as a Cincinnati fan, I'm not real happy. I guess I should get used to it; Our administration is killing sports (especially basketball) at our school.
All right, I filled out my bracket so my complete ineptitude at picking college basketball games can be seen by all. Against my better judgement I picked Duke and Texas to meet in the Elite Eight, with Texas going on to the final game against UConn and winning. I doubt any of that will happen -- Duke'll probably lose to Syracuse or LSU and Texas will probably get trounced by Iowa but when I start filling these things out I get all swept up in school spirit. Feh. This is why Vegas is off limits to me.
Ed, you gotta post your picks at some point!