Official, from IMF...
global economic prospects suck
IMF report: Global Prospects and Policies (pdf large)
they predict economic growth in the US in the second half of 2010...
IF good policies for recovery are implemented, and recovery in first half of 2011 if poor policies are implemented
hmmm...
recovery in the third half of next year!
oil prices are projected somewhere between $20 and $160 per barrel.
That is what we call confident economic forecasting!
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I've gotta get me a job where I'm paid for predictions like that. My current boss gets fussy if I round half a penny the wrong way.
While the graphs look ominous, a couple do have a bit of an up-tick on the last increments, the goo news is I'm in a developed economy. When things bottom out in the developing world people are dying. As terrible as those graphs look the fact is that the US has a lot of underutilized resources and fat, both metaphoric and actual, to cushion the fall.
A local captain of business complains loudly, often in existential and apocalyptic terms, about how bad he has it. Butt eh results, so far, is that he moved from a 1.5 million dollar home to one that goes for less than half a million, and he has sold his boat and one of his three cars. Yes, he is suffering but he is a very long way from living on the streets or starving.
People living on less than a dollar a day before this are dying.
Love that consumer confidence graph.
Euro area has always been lower than the US is now by a whole lot? Wierd and wacky, the economy be. And I would also love to get the 20-160$ forecasting job.
In fact, I'm willing to go out on a limb and predict 21-159$! Clearly, my predictive abilites are superior!