I heard that within 15 years, global warming will have made Napa County too hot to grow good wine grapes. Is that true? What other changes are we going to see during our lifetimes because of global warming?...
Er, I don't know.
The detailed claim is that 1) the number of extremely hot days (T > 35 C (95 F)) will increase, and 2) that this degrades sugar and inhibits photosynthesis in wine grapes, so you get a worse crop.
Part 2) sounds likely - except of course there are heat tolerant grapes (which is obvious, Greece, Italy and Spain grow a lot of wine grapes), but for the classic french red, like pinot noir, high heat at the wrong time can lead to very tannic wine and low volume production. Or not, it can also lead to very intense, classic vintages, if the weather comes at the right time with some cool intervals.
The technological solution, of course, is to genetically engineer pinot noir to be heat tolerant yet tasty; the act-local solution is to start exploring southern Med varietals; and the actual solution that will happen is that Oregon and Washington vineyards will move in - and maybe one day Kent, UK, will overtake Bourdeaux and Burgundy in wine quality (hah!). Er, well unless the Gulf Stream shifts, in which case I guess Spain and Tunisia will be looking at Pinot Noir, or South Oz, or somewhere...
So... I'm slightly more skeptical about the first part of the claim, that within 15 years the temperature excursion in that particular part of California will be enough to matter. First of all, I'd think 50 rather than 15; secondly regional change is much more fickle than global change; and, yes, I know the Valley is hot right now, but Napa is actually below 95 according to accuweather this week... so keep an eye out for the 2006 Merlots.
Overall, maybe it is true, it is something the Napa producers should think about - vineyards are a long term investment.
What other changes...
more intense and frequent tropical storms, anyone? ;-)
significant medium terms shifts in precipitation, including long term regional droughts and other areas that were arid receiving more rainfall.
possible significant shift in the North Atlantic circulation, with regional cooling in NW Europe
less Alpine skiing, and shorter snow season in mid-Atlantic states in the US
movement of species poleward, including pests and parasites
air conditioning or re-structuring of resdiential and business housing will be needed in some areas as heat becomes intolerable for extended periods in previously temperate climates (and as the population ages and becomes less used to manual outdoor labour)
longer growing seasons in temperate zones, shifts in arable crops by region
PS: Hey, this means Randall was just ahead of the curve, again...
- Log in to post comments
Classically, hotter temps mean far less rainfall for the interior of North America. The current drought in the central mountain states will become standard instead of, well, a drought. My personal nightmare is the Alaskan current shutting down, which will turn California into hell (assuming one does not think it is hell already....)
Yup, that's one place I was thinking of for regional drought, although specific predictions are hard since this warming is different in forcing characteristics from past warming, so jet stream tracks and precipitation patterns are likely to differ in detail...