Politico's Manu Raju wrote an interesting article on the Energizer Bunny Election in Minnesota yesterday. His analysis of the situation focused on the political bind that Minnesota's Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty seems likely to find himself in within the next month or two: if and when the Minnesota Supreme Court rejects Norm Coleman's election contest, who does he decide to piss off:
Franken won big Tuesday when a three-judge panel allowed the review of no more than 400 absentee ballots in a race he currently leads by 225 votes. Coleman's camp says an appeal to the Minnesota Supreme Court is coming; once that's done, the dispute lands in Pawlenty's lap.
If Franken's ahead at that point, Pawlenty will have a choice: sign the election certificate that will allow Democrats to seat Franken in the Senate or play to the Republicans whose support he'd need in 2012 by withholding the certificate while Coleman challenges the election in the federal court system.
It's true that you definitely don't want to be Pawlenty in that situation.
If Pawlenty signs an election certificate for Franken at the end of the state court process, he'll dash the hopes of Senate Republicans who hope to keep Franken out of the Senate at least until the Federal courts have ruled on every possible Coleman claim - a process that they hope will take years. If he wants to run for President in 2012, he's going to need the backing and support of Republicans from around the country. If he makes it easier for the Democrats to get things done in the Senate, he's not going to have an easy time getting that support.
On the other hand, if he refuses to sign the certificate, Minnesota may remain down one Senator for the foreseeable future. That's not likely to thrill his constituents, particularly if the Republicans manage to keep their obstruction going through to the start of the 2010 election cycle - and Pawlenty is up for re-election in 2010. In that case, it's absolutely certain that the Democrats will spend a lot of time - and money - talking about what I'm sure they'll refer to as Pawlenty's "refusal to put Minnesota's interests first". It's also extremely likely that whoever the Democrats nominate to face Pawlenty in the Governor's race will have a fairly easy time raising funds from a highly pissed off Democratic netroots. And it's reasonable to think that Pawlenty will have an easier time running in 2012 if he's a sitting governor and not a recently defeated ex-governor.
Tim Pawlenty is totally, completely, and thoroughly screwed. The question is, who's fault is it?
The text of the article doesn't get into that extremely complex issue, but Politico's headline writer was happy to take a stand - the piece is titled "Franken puts Pawlenty in a jam."
That's right. Poor Tim Pawlenty is in a bind, particularly if he has aspirations for higher office, because the guy that the election board said won the election will want to be treated like he won if the three judge panel and the highest court in Minnesota agree that he won. It's not the fault of the Republicans in the Senate who would rather see his state with only one Senator than see the Democrats get a 59th Senator seated. It's not the fault of his own painfully apparent political ambition. It's certainly not the fault of the party-switching nimrod whose has, in his three statewide election campaigns, lost to a professional wrestler, squeaked out a narrow victory over a dead guy, and lost to a former comedian. Nope. It's Franken's fault.
I just love the media's liberal bias, don't you?
- Log in to post comments
This whole Energizer Bunny Circus is happening because the Republicans are scared to death of real healthcare reform. As much as I'm enjoying watching Pawlenty squirm between the rock and the hard place, I really wish we could just seat Franken and start moving this nation towards where the rest of the developed world already is.
... you definitely don't want to be Pawlenty in that situation.
Three words too many in that sentence.
I may be a bit of an optimist but Pawlenty's action is clear. Once all state challenges are completed - sign the certificate. In other words - just follow the law which has been done down to the letter since this all began.
(didn't vote for either guy but really enjoying this test of our system)
I think that's giving the Republican Party a lot more credit for rational behavior than they deserve. They think they are entitled to be in charge and they're going to kick and scream and hold their collective breath any time the grown ups say no. Over the last three election cycles it's become standard operating procedure for them to them to call any close election that they lose "stolen." They then use it to whip up the paranoia of the faithful and beg for donations. Look at the situation in NY-20. Even before the polls closed, Tedisco and the NY GOP had filed a lawsuit demanding the results of the voters be set aside and the courts proclaim Tedisco the winner. They're already sending out the fund raising letters claiming the Democrats are stealing the election by getting more votes. It's pathological.