Orac has a post up on this new JAMA paper as well. He brings up some better examples than the one I gave:
Does anyone in this day and age still believe that smoking doesn't cause lung cancer? The epidemiological evidence of the association is bulletproof. However, the majority of smokers don't get lung cancer. In fact, there are complex statistical models that allow a pretty accurate calculation of risk in populations based on how long and how much a smoker has been smoking. For example, if you start smoking at age 18 and smoke two packs a day, by age 55, you have about a 5% chance of dying of lung cancer and by age 75 you have about a 20% chance of dying of lung cancer. That's a far lower chance than an HIV-positive patient has of progressing to full-blown AIDS in 10 years (approximately 50%); yet no one seriously disputes that smoking is a very strong risk factor for lung cancer. At the population level, the association is very strong. However, if I see a 65-year-old patient who has been smoking since age 18, I can't tell him whether he will definitely get lung cancer. I can only quote probabilities. Between two 65-year-olds who are heavy smokers, one may be perfectly fine and another may have stage IV lung cancer.
Let's look at another example: Breast cancer. Let's look at stage IV disease, which is, in essence, 100% fatal eventually. However, we do have pretty good estimates of median survival and what a patient's chance of living 6, 12, 24, and 36 months are. However, when faced with a single breast cancer patient with stage IV disease, we are pretty poor at predicting how long that particular patient will survive. We can't give a good answer to this poor hypothetical patient's question, "How long have I got left?" We can only quote probabilities. One woman might deteriorate and die in 6 months, while all of us involved in the care of breast cancer patients have seen the occasional patient who has lived with metastatic disease for several years and done mostly well.
Examples like this abound in the medical literature. The fact that HIV "dissidents" again think this new paper describes some phenomenon unique to HIV again shows their ignorance of the totality of the biomedical literature.
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I'm not going to be happy until I have you calling them denialists too.
Sorry to harp on this stuff, but I feel like this universal tactic for politicizing science and rejecting the truth for whatever reason deserves a descriptor and a universal response (immediate scorn). It seems like every single time anyone in science is challenged by someone with a political motive it's using these same tactics. We should stop attacking the individual denialist causes and start attacking denialism directly. The war on science and rationality, from whatever source, is always using this same set of tactics, and we have to make it clear that these types of arguments are prima facie false.
These are excellent examples examples of denialism using selectivity, and we should just reject it as such. Don't argue with them over these silly claims when they've already failed from the start to make a reasoned argument (namely, how this explanation, like you say, fits with the totality of the literature). And I love the mention of the cigarettes and cancer link because the cigarette companies were the the original denialists using a heavily-monied campaign to sow confusion about the carcinogenicity of cigarettes. I think if we had recognized this tactic back then, and nipped it in the bud, it wouldn't have taken 50 years to prove beyond all freaking reason (they particularly liked magnifying doubt/moving goalposts) that cigarettes cause cancer.
Does anyone in this day and age still believe that smoking doesn't cause lung cancer?
[giggle] Yeah, I do. As do many others. I won't say that smoking is particularly healthy, but it definately doesn't cause lung cancer.
The epidemiological evidence of the association is bulletproof.
Evidence is what you get when you leave out everything that contradicts your beliefs. Smoke=cancer evidence is as leaks about as much as HIV=Aids my dear.
My lord Tara, you actually managed to find someone who doesn't think that cigarette smoking is carcinogenic!
Behold the power of denialism.
Yes it is amazing that people can still believe that in the face of study in animals and the wealth of epidemiologic information from humans' experience with tobacco, namely that incredible increase in lung cancer rates concurrent with the rise of more mild cigarette tobacco allowing for a constant intake of drug. Or just the obvious data showing that lung cancer in a nonsmoker is incredibly rare, and is almost bizarre when it happens (usually requiring exposure to some other carcinogen but rarely people will get a small-cell carcinoma with no significant exposure risk), while being incredibly common in the smoker.
The ability for someone to ignore the obvious in this way is pretty staggering which is why I think the issue of denialism itself is more important than individual topics that denialists attack.
"Yeah, I do. As do many others. I won't say that smoking is particularly healthy, but it definately doesn't cause lung cancer."
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Black is white! Good is Evil! Truth is Fiction! Jefferson was the antichrist!
I particularly like the 'definitely' part. Not "I'm not convinced" not "Studies are inconclusive" but right up to DEFINITELY NOT. No evidence, of course, just the declaritive.
Classic.
No evidence, of course, just the declaritive.
Evidence? You want evidence? I believe there is no definite evidence for anything but if you want, I have tons of what people normally call evidence. But always when I point to my ideas, the apologist dummies try to bite off my finger. So what do I care? People who don't want to listen to anything new will stay stupid and there's nothing I can do to change that.
I've seen others advance the kind of ideas I agree with on this site but personally I have never shown any of my so-called evidence on this remarkable one-sided blog so let's give it a try.
What evidence do you want? Lung cancer is as common in smokers as it is in non-smokers. Where it all gets tricky is when you have to draw the frontier between smokers and non-smokers. A person who has been smoking from his 15th until his 30th birthday and who gets lung cancer at an age of 60, is he in the smoker's or in the non-smoker's stats? Already there are not so many people who never smoked a cigarette in their lives and, of course, today the last barriers to easy statistics are leveled. Secondary smoke! What an amazing trick of the apologist geniuses. Nobody in the whole wide world is save from secondary smoke and today ALL lung cancer can be traced back to cigarettes.
But we should consider things differently. For example, everybody diagnosed with a severe disease like cancer or AIDS will end up having lung cancer. Look it up: Cancer metastasis in the lungs is the most common of secondary cancers. Which is very logical: People who are severely ill are very afraid and the cause of lung cancer is fear. Or, to be more precise, a biological conflict of "fear of death" is the cause if the lung alveoli are concerned.
"I believe there is no definite evidence for anything"
"everybody diagnosed with a severe disease like cancer or AIDS"
"the cause of lung cancer is fear"
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Apparently, Hoy can be definite about something totally asinine in the complete absence of definitive evidence.... even things that aren't actually facts in that conventional sense of the term. Again, note that the denier cannot keep a straight story, but changes his position paragraph by paragraph. Very interesting.
Re Charles Hoy.
Of course smoking tobacco products doesn't cause lung cancer and HIV doesn't cause AIDS. Furthermore, germs don't cause disease, the Sun goes around the Earth the Earth is flat, the Moon is made out of green cheese, Iraq had nuclear weapons, the Moon landing never took place, and the US Government brought down the World Trade Center, not 4 airliners. It's all very simple, you're just stupit if you don't understand it.
For the reality-based readers, here's a good overview of the facts
From: Levitz JS. Overview of smoking and all cancers. Med Clin North Am - 01-NOV-2004; 88(6): 1655-75
Charles Hoy writes: "Lung cancer is as common in smokers as it is in non-smokers."
Supporting references please.